Stock Market Outlook for July 11, 2023
The change of vehicle sales in the US have surged this spring, representative of the resilience of the consumer in this economy.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI) Seasonal Chart
Motorola Solutions Inc. (NYSE:MSI) Seasonal Chart
Bird Construction Inc. (TSE:BDT.TO) Seasonal Chart
Donaldson Co, Inc. (NYSE:DCI) Seasonal Chart
Griffon Corp. (NYSE:GFF) Seasonal Chart
KP Tissue Inc. (TSE:KPT.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (NYSE:EZU) Seasonal Chart
Fortive Corp. (NYSE:FTV) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed generally mixed as a NASDAQ re-balancing acted as a drag on some of the biggest stocks in the market that had ballooned in value through the first half of the year. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just less than a quarter of one percent, remaining supported by the rising 20-day moving average. Major moving averages continue to fan out, which remains characteristic of a bullish trend, providing a number of points of reference below from which the benchmark may find support. But while the benchmark remains sufficiently supported in the intermediate-term, a retracement back to the previous horizontal breakout point at 4200 is still fair game as part of this progression higher off of last year’s low. A short-term momentum divergence versus price hints that buying demand may be waning in the near-term, ahead of what could be a digestive move through the back half of the third quarter. We continue to see a calculated upside target for the benchmark of 4600, based on the move above the 400-point trading range between 3800 and 4200, and it would take a violation of the previously broken horizontal resistance at the upper limit of that aforementioned range to suggest an alternate course. Seasonally, stocks tend to remain supported through the summer rally that spans, generally, the month of July.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Equal Weight S&P 500 Index
- Country ETFs increasingly showing resistance at their previous peaks
- Our weekly chart books update: Find out what joins our list of segments to Accumulate and the wildly lucrative trade from recent months that is showing waning upside momentum
- US Vehicle Sales
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- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.88.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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