Stock Market Outlook for April 17, 2023
The trend retail sales has yet to show a path that is representative of the looming onset of an economic recession.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Investar Holding Corp. (NASD:ISTR) Seasonal Chart
J.Jill, Inc. (NYSE:JILL) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth ETF (NYSE:VIOG) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P SmallCap Health Care ETF (NASD:PSCH) Seasonal Chart
Baidu, Inc. (NASD:BIDU) Seasonal Chart
Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE:ALLY) Seasonal Chart
Agilysys Inc. (NASD:AGYS) Seasonal Chart
FirstService Corp. (TSE:FSV.TO) Seasonal Chart
Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSE:CVE.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed mildly lower on Friday as the market struggles to attract buying demand in order to fuel an upside breakout. The S&P 500 Index closed down by just over two-tenths of one percent, charting a rather indecisive doji candlestick below the range of resistance between 4100 and 4200. Momentum indicators continue to waiver with the MACD histogram increasing retracing back to 0 as the technical indicator converges on its signal line following the buy signal that was triggered on March 21st. Major moving averages, now in the range of 3950 to 4050, remain in positions of support, but the more important hurdle on the downside remains the December low at 3764 as a definitive break of this barrier would bring an end to the intermediate path of higher-highs and higher-lows stemming from the October bottom. The negative divergence being observed with respect to various momentum indicators continues highlight a market that is not all that excited to be aggressive on the long side of stocks with the fundamental uncertainties that persist. Stocks remain in this period of strength that reaches a peak around the start of May, effectively capping the best six months of the year for stocks that started in October, and our concerns remain elevated over what may become of the path for the market as we progress further into the spring.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- The decline in the number of new 52-week highs in the market
- US Retail Sales and the resilience of the consumer
- US Industrial Production and the few segments of the industrial sector that are of interest through the months ahead
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.92.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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