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Stock Market Outlook for February 1, 2023

Some of the cheapest stocks in the market with fundamental tailwinds behind them are moving above significant horizontal support.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Allstate Corp. (NYSE:ALL) Seasonal Chart

Allstate Corp. (NYSE:ALL) Seasonal Chart

WW Grainger, Inc. (NYSE:GWW) Seasonal Chart

WW Grainger, Inc. (NYSE:GWW) Seasonal Chart

Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) Seasonal Chart

Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) Seasonal Chart

1-800 FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (NASD:FLWS) Seasonal Chart

1-800 FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (NASD:FLWS) Seasonal Chart

Ero Copper Corporation (TSE:ERO.TO) Seasonal Chart

Ero Copper Corporation (TSE:ERO.TO) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks gained to close out the month of January as investors continue to neutralize negative bets ahead of month-end reporting, the upcoming FOMC announcement, and the ongoing release of earnings reports.  The S&P 500 Index ended higher by 1.46%, erasing the loss that was realized to start the week.  The large-cap benchmark remains above former declining trendline resistance, but below the highs set in the month of December at 4100, presenting a critical line in the sand that is keeping the path of lower-highs on an intermediate to long-term basis intact.  Momentum indicators continue to show early signs of rolling over with the MACD histogram increasingly narrowing back towards 0.  The technical framework to the market continues to give bias to a neutral view and we are waiting for the trend to evolve to suggest either and bullish of bearish mentality for the months ahead.

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For the month ahead, the S&P 500 Index has averaged an unchanged (0.0%) result in February over the past two decades, however, 60% of the periods have shown a positive outcome.  Returns have ranged from a loss of 11.0% in February of 2009 to a gain of 5.5% in February of 2015.  The softer period for equity market performance concludes around the start of March before the spring uptick in prices attributed to Investment Retirement Account (IRA) contributions begins. We break down everything to look for in the month ahead in our just released monthly report for February.  Subscribe now.

S&P 500 Index Seasonal Chart

$SPX Monthly Averages

Just Released…

Our 92-page monthly report for February is out, providing everything that you need to know for the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

  • Equity market tendencies in the month of February
  • Investors not upbeat about the year ahead
  • Using the Yield Curve as a coincident indicator to a recessionary market decline
  • Analysts are too optimistic and this is good news for the bond market
  • Credit spreads providing indication of alleviating strains, but a recession would certainly change that
  • The ultimate coincident indication of economic activity: Jobless Claims
  • Market versus the Fed
  • Consumer has definitively cashed out
  • Existing Home Sales
  • Manufacturers not optimistic either
  • Tightening lending standards
  • Not helping industrials is the downfall of the shipping economy
  • Inflationary pressures remain an ongoing concern and could re-flare through the months ahead
  • Forecasted general direction of stocks in 2023
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite back to the 2022 breakdown points
  • Sustainability of this year’s strength of domestic equities in question
  • Dollar remains key to the market
  • Bonds
  • Lower yields versus a stronger dollar
  • If you can’t find any love at home, go elsewhere
  • Strength in International equities correlates well with strength in Gold
  • Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
  • Positioning for the months ahead
  • Sector Reviews and Ratings
  • Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of February
  • Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in February

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox.

Not subscribed yet? Signup now to receive this and other reports that we publish on either a daily or monthly basis, providing insight on how to position your portfolio according to our three pronged approach.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • Monthly look at the large-cap benchmark
  • US Home Prices
  • Canada Gross Domestic Product and some of the cheapest stocks in the market with fundamental tailwinds behind them

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for February 1

Not signed up yet?  Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish.

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.91.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Meta Platforms, Inc. Seasonal Chart Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Seasonal Chart Novartis AG Seasonal Chart T-Mobile US, Inc. Seasonal Chart Altria Group Seasonal Chart GSK plc Seasonal Chart Boston Scientific Corporation Seasonal Chart Waste Management, Inc. Seasonal Chart Humana Inc. Seasonal Chart Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Seasonal Chart MetLife, Inc. Seasonal Chart McKesson Corporation Seasonal Chart Johnson Controls International plc Seasonal Chart Aflac Incorporated Seasonal Chart Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Seasonal Chart Allstate Corporation (The) Seasonal Chart AmerisourceBergen Corporation (Holding Co) Seasonal Chart Align Technology, Inc. Seasonal Chart Hologic, Inc. Seasonal Chart CGI Inc. Seasonal Chart Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Seasonal Chart Globe Life Inc. Seasonal Chart C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. Seasonal Chart Qorvo, Inc. Seasonal Chart Westrock Company Seasonal Chart Regal Rexnord Corporation Seasonal Chart UGI Corporation Seasonal Chart Tetra Tech, Inc. Seasonal Chart DXC Technology Company Seasonal Chart Murphy USA Inc. Seasonal Chart Silicon Laboratories, Inc. Seasonal Chart Rayonier Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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