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Stock Market Outlook for January 30, 2023

With losses typical during recessionary or rate hiking periods, we may have to dismiss the theory of “As goes January, so goes the year.”

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Electronic Arts, Inc. (NASD:EA) Seasonal Chart

Electronic Arts, Inc. (NASD:EA) Seasonal Chart

Expeditors Intl of Washington, Inc. (NASD:EXPD) Seasonal Chart

Expeditors Intl of Washington, Inc. (NASD:EXPD) Seasonal Chart

Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASD:AZPN) Seasonal Chart

Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASD:AZPN) Seasonal Chart

Linde plc (NYSE:LIN) Seasonal Chart

Linde plc (NYSE:LIN) Seasonal Chart

CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE:CEIX) Seasonal Chart

CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE:CEIX) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF (AMEX:EQAL) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF (AMEX:EQAL) Seasonal Chart

VMware Inc. (NYSE:VMW) Seasonal Chart

VMware Inc. (NYSE:VMW) Seasonal Chart

TETRA Technologies (NYSE:TTI) Seasonal Chart

TETRA Technologies (NYSE:TTI) Seasonal Chart

Chart Industries Inc. (NYSE:GTLS) Seasonal Chart

Chart Industries Inc. (NYSE:GTLS) Seasonal Chart

Nordson Corp. (NASD:NDSN) Seasonal Chart

Nordson Corp. (NASD:NDSN) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks ended with gains to close the week as investors that have been betting on a downside move in the market continue to re-trench and neutralize negative bets.  The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of a quarter of one percent, increasingly moving above long-term declining declining trendline resistance that had capped the benchmark over the past year.  It is now reaching back to December’s double-top resistance at 4100, the final line in the sand that is keeping the path of lower-highs intact.  The 50-day moving average, indicative of the path of the intermediate-term trend, remains on the rise and appears poised to intersect with the 200-day moving average in the days ahead.  It was back on March 14th of last year that the intermediate moving average crossed below its longer-term counterpart, an event, while foretelling of the longer-term declining path to come, triggered a swift 10% rise in prices through the back half of March before the more dominant path of lower-lows and lower-highs took hold in the month of April.  The timeliness of moving average crossovers as buy or sell signals immediately following the result will forever remain questionable, but they can provide valuable insight on where the momentum in the market is and whether we should be prepared to be bullish or bearish on stocks for the intermediate timeframe that our strategy caters towards.  For now, a neutral bias of domestic equities remains warranted as we wait for evidence of something sustainable to trade off of, whether on the positive or negative side.

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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark and potential risk-reward levels
  • US Dollar Index
  • “As goes January, so goes the year” theory
  • Consumer and business loan growth in 2022
  • The change in margin debt and credit balances in investor accounts

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for January 30

Not signed up yet?  Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish.

Soon to be released…

We are busy placing the finishing touches on our Monthly Outlook for February, highlighting everything that you need to know for the month(s) ahead.  Subscribers can lookout for this report in their inbox in the days ahead.

Not subscribed yet?  Signup now to receive access to all of the research that we publish, including our popular chart books that details segments of the market to Accumulate or Avoid.

Mission Accomplished

January is always a busy month for us given all the of the updates that are required for our seasonal research, available via the chart database at https://charts.equityclock.com/.  Our charts were updated just a few days into the new year, but our seasonal test that derives our optimal holding periods is a much more demanding process that takes many weeks to complete given the exhaustive nature of the study by testing each and every date combination to find periods of defined historical buying demand.  We are pleased to announce that this process has been completed and the results have been uploaded to the database for your reference.  Annual subscribers can also download the spreadsheet (https://charts.equityclock.com/download) that includes all of these results, providing a unique way to filter the data and perform your own queries right from your desktop.  This exhaustive research is alone well worth the value of an annual subscription, however, if you are a monthly subscriber and have been with us for over a year, feel free to reach out to us to request access to this spreadsheet as well.  Enjoy!

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.83.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

NXP Semiconductors N.V. Seasonal Chart Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. Seasonal Chart Canon, Inc. Seasonal Chart Principal Financial Group Inc Seasonal Chart Franklin Resources, Inc. Seasonal Chart Koninklijke Philips N.V. Seasonal Chart Equity Lifestyle Properties, Inc. Seasonal Chart Graco Inc. Seasonal Chart Whirlpool Corporation Seasonal Chart AGNC Investment Corp. Seasonal Chart Woodward, Inc. Seasonal Chart Helmerich & Payne, Inc. Seasonal Chart PotlatchDeltic Corporation Seasonal Chart Sanmina Corporation Seasonal Chart J & J Snack Foods Corp. Seasonal Chart Heartland Financial USA, Inc. Seasonal Chart Harmonic Inc. Seasonal Chart Dynex Capital, Inc. Seasonal Chart Transcat, Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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