Stock Market Outlook for January 6, 2023
Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Ecolab, Inc. (NYSE:ECL) Seasonal Chart
Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) Seasonal Chart
McCormick & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MKC) Seasonal Chart
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSE:CMG.TO) Seasonal Chart
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Seasonal Chart
Philip Morris Intl Inc. (NYSE:PM) Seasonal Chart
Marten Transport, Ltd. (NASD:MRTN) Seasonal Chart
Imax Corp. (NYSE:IMAX) Seasonal Chart
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Global Momentum Factor ETF (TSE:VMO.TO) Seasonal Chart
SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF (AMEX:QUS) Seasonal Chart
iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) Seasonal Chart
iShares Edge MSCI Minimum Volatility Global ETF (AMEX:ACWV) Seasonal Chart
Metro, Inc. (TSE:MRU.TO) Seasonal Chart
FirstService Corp. (TSE:FSV.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks struggled on Thursday in what has become a “yo-yo” market over the past couple of weeks amidst the notorious Santa Claus rally period. The S&P 500 Index closed lower on the session by 1.16%, remaining in a tight consolidation span below 20 and 50-day moving averages and horizontal resistance at 3900. The benchmark appears to be coiling for a big move, one way or the other, and with technical resistance remaining stubborn overhead, seasonal tendencies about to turn negative post holiday rally timeframe, and fundamentals not providing much to be encouraged by, the three-prongs to our approach are aligning to suggest that the risk is lower. The benchmark continues to hold the upside November gap between 3770 and 3860 as a zone of support, a break of which would project a move back to the October low at 3500. The big influence standing in the way of a sustained downside resolution is the very thing that has kept the market capped in recent weeks, which is sentiment. Investors have become excessively bearish and a lopsided bias that is prone to an abrupt unwind has formed. The next major catalyst that the bears will seek to feed off of is directly ahead with the non-farm payroll report for December, providing a gauge of the labor market that has kept the US Fed on its tightening path over the past year.
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bearish at 1.02.Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
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- Looking at the period of seasonal weakness for stocks that is now upon us and the action we are taking in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
- Watching the VIX as it nears the peak of a triangle consolidation pattern
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- A preview of what to expect of the Nonfarm Payroll report
- Natural gas inventories and our trade in the commodity
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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