Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a decline of 0.3% in the month of January with only 45% of periods ending with a gain.

Stock Market Outlook for January 3, 2023

Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a decline of 0.3% in the month of January with only 45% of periods ending with a gain.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Domino’s Pizza Group LTD (NYSE:DPZ) Seasonal Chart

Watsco, Inc. (NYSE:WSO) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Tactical Bond ETF (TSE:PTB.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASD:IEF) Seasonal Chart

Absolute Software Corp. (TSE:ABST.TO) Seasonal Chart

ProShares Short Financials (NYSE:SEF) Seasonal Chart

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings (NYSE:LH) Seasonal Chart

Great-West Lifeco, Inc. (TSE:GWO.TO) Seasonal Chart

Noodles & Company (NASD:NDLS) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

Stocks struggled in the final session of 2022, providing a fitting close to what has been a disappointing year for equity investments, overall. The S&P 500 Index closed with a loss of a quarter of one percent, remaining within the consolidation range that has been carved out over the past couple of weeks just below the 50-day moving average and horizontal resistance at 3900. Momentum indicators continue to show signs of short-term downside exhaustion as MACD once again converges on its signal line. It was on December 6th that MACD generated a sell signal by crossing below its signal line. The 20-day moving average continues to curl lower, defining a negative trend on a short-term timescale, however, the 50-day moving average, more indicative of the path of the intermediate trend, is still pointed higher. The two moving averages are converging on one another at aforementioned horizontal resistance at 3900. November’s upside gap support between 3770 and 3860 has done an effective job keeping the large-cap benchmark stable during this seasonally strong time of year, but we have yet to observe upside follow-through more aligned with might be expected of this holiday influenced timeframe. There is still a few more days left in the Santa Claus Rally period, but the timeframe is becoming limited.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

A look at the predictive power of the Santa Claus rally on the subsequent calendar year return for stocks should the period end in failure

Monthly look at the S&P 500 Index

Reviewing and commenting on a major theme in our January report

Securities that have either gained or lost in every January over their trading history

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For the month ahead, over the past two decades, the first month of the year has averaged a decline of 0.3% with only 45% of periods showing a gain. Returns range from a loss of 8.6% in January 2009 to a gain of 7.9% in January of 2019. We breakdown everything to look out for in the month ahead in our just released monthly outlook for January. Look for this report in your inbox now. S&P 500 Index Seasonal Chart

Just released…
Our monthly report for January is out, providing our forecast for stocks, bonds, commodities, and currency market for the year ahead, as well as providing everything that you need to know to navigate through the month(s) ahead according to our three pronged approach. Highlights in this report include:

Equity market tendencies in the month of January

Our Base-Case for 2023

Average performance of stocks during recessionary years

Using the path of the market during the 1981/82 recession as a guide for stocks moving forward

Average performance of Gold during recessionary years

Currency Market Forecast

Looking for the return of the diversification benefits of a 60/40 Portfolio

Inversion of the yield curve

Inflationary pressures showing no significant signs of alleviating

Tracking the spread of COVID

Medical devices for offensive exposure in 2023

Poor Breadth

Breakdown of the Consumer Discretionary sector

Banks struggling following their optimal holding period

Price action of Copper foretelling of tough economic conditions ahead

Crypto market a cause for concern

Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs

Positioning for the months ahead

Sector Reviews and Ratings

Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of January

Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in January

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