Stock Market Outlook for November 14, 2022
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF (NYSE:EDIV) Seasonal Chart
First Trust US IPO Index Fund (NYSE:FPX) Seasonal Chart
First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE:FXZ) Seasonal Chart
iShares FactorSelect MSCI International ETF (AMEX:INTF) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Global Dividend ETF (AMEX:WDIV) Seasonal Chart
iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF (NASD:WOOD) Seasonal Chart
CMS Energy Corp. (NYSE:CMS) Seasonal Chart
AGCO Corp. (NYSE:AGCO) Seasonal Chart
BorgWarner, Inc. (NYSE:BWA) Seasonal Chart
Bunge Ltd. (NYSE:BG) Seasonal Chart
Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:GOLD) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (NYSE:IYH) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF (NYSE:PSP) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Internet ETF (AMEX:XWEB) Seasonal Chart
Precision Drilling Corp. (TSE:PD.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks followed through with Thursday’s strong rally to close the week higher as investors race to cover negative bets that had become elevated through recent months and recent days. The S&P 500 Index realized a gain of just less than one percent, continuing to make progress above horizontal resistance around 3900 and seemingly on track to test the declining 200-day moving average in the days/weeks ahead. The 20-day moving average has crossed back above its 50-day moving average, a positive technical event that was last seen at the start of August amidst the summer rally in stocks. The benchmark is back on a short-term rising trend, supported by levels around its rising 20-day moving average, and the revelation of a cup-and-handle pattern between 3600 and 3900 projects an upside target towards 4200. The 50-day moving average is starting to feel the levitation from this weeks breakout and is showing very early signs of bottoming. This intermediate hurdle is highly important to our seasonal strategy and when it is on the rise, typically a positive bias of stocks is warranted and using the hurdle as a level of support to buy is typically prudent. In addition to the declining 200-day moving average as a level of near-term resistance, traders should be cognizant of the downside gap that was charted in September around 4050 as a potential point to lead to a pause in the recent positivity in the equity benchmark, but, overall, the trend remains conducive to the ongoing strength of prices through the end of the year.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The bottoming pattern in the Technology sector and when to seek to become sellers of exposure
- Lack of buying conviction to Thursday’s equity market rally
- A look at the average performance of the S&P 500 Index during recessionary years
- Investor Sentiment
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.75.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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