Stock Market Outlook for September 2, 2022
The concerning economic data-points continue to stack up, this time with US Construction Spending showing a very rare July decline.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF (NYSE:IAT) Seasonal Chart
Cambria Value and Momentum ETF (AMEX:VAMO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (AMEX:SPVU) Seasonal Chart
Pacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF (AMEX:GCOW) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (TSE:VVL.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO Covered Call Dow Jones Industrial Average Hedged to CAD ETF (TSE:ZWA.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO US Dividend Hedged to CAD ETF (TSE:ZUD.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P SmallCap Financials ETF (NASD:PSCF) Seasonal Chart
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) Seasonal Chart
BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF (TSE:ZWH.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO US Dividend ETF (TSE:ZDY.TO) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard U.S. Dividend Appreciation Index ETF (CAD-hedged) (TSE:VGH.TO) Seasonal Chart
PacWest Bancorp (NASD:PACW) Seasonal Chart
Telefonica SA (NYSE:TEF) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks shook off concerns pertaining to higher rates and a stronger US Dollar on Thursday to close mildly higher. The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of three-tenths of one percent, reversing a decline of over one percent at the lows of the session that saw the benchmark intersect with the psychologically important 3900 level. The benchmark remains below major moving averages and the fact that it has failed to close at or near the 20 or 50-day moving averages given the uncertainty pertaining to Friday’s payroll report is telling of the negative sentiment that has materialized in recent weeks. Typically, ahead of an uncertain/pivotal event, stocks will tend to pin themselves towards a major moving average. Momentum indicators are still pointing lower after rolling over from overbought territory just a few weeks ago and the MACD histogram continues to expand negatively, suggesting that we not yet near a new buy signal. We remain on the lookout for higher-lows with respect to RSI and MACD, along with price, above the June low, something that would provide a powerful signal that an intermediate bottom to the market is in, one that would be conducive to fuel a sustained multi-month rally. We are anxious to put our cash hoard back to work after pulling a large chunk of equity exposure upon the rejection of the S&P 500 Index from the 200-day moving average, some 250 points or so ago.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The breakout of the 10-year US Treasury Yield and the US Dollar
- Weekly Jobless claims and the health of the labor market
- A preview of what to look for in the Non-Farm Payroll report for August
- US Construction Spending and the stocks of the builders
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 2
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Just released…
Our monthly report for September is out, providing you with all of the insight to help you navigate through the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of September
- Sentiment and positioning
- High Yield Spreads
- Industrial Production
- Manufacturer sentiment
- Shipping metrics confirming a negative economic backdrop
- The ongoing inventory issue
- The downfall of the housing market
- Falloff of demand for big-ticket items
- The ongoing spread of COVID
- Consumer Prices
- Seasonal play in agriculture stocks
- The second of the weakest two-week spans in the equity market
- Market Breadth
- Failed breakout for bond prices?
- Resumption of the rise in the US Dollar
- Failure of risk to overcome significant hurdles overhead
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of September
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in September
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or via the report archive at https://charts.equityclock.com/
Not subscribed yet? Simply signup to either our monthly or yearly plan and receive all of the research and analysis that we publish.
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bearish at 1.03.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No significant earnings scheduled for today
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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