Stock Market Outlook for April 1, 2022
S&P 500 Index has gained 2.4%, on average, in the month of April with 80% of periods seeing gains in the past two decades.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Prudential Financial Inc. (NYSE:PRU) Seasonal Chart
Ocwen Financial Corp. (NYSE:OCN) Seasonal Chart
Meritor, Inc. (NYSE:MTOR) Seasonal Chart
Energy Transfer LP (NYSE:ET) Seasonal Chart
Kornit Digital Ltd (NASD:KRNT) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks sold off in the final session of March in what was the final chance for the market to rebalance before the first quarter war complete. The S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.57%, closing at the lows of the session and reaching back to the 200-day moving that was broken last week. The benchmark ends the month and quarter around a minor level of horizontal support at 4530. Momentum indicators are now clearly rolling over following hints of exhaustion provided by the MACD histogram in recent days. In our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio, we pulled back on equity exposure on Monday in an effort to sidestep this suspected end-of-month/end-of-quarter drift lower and we have repositioned again as of the close on Thursday to enter the new month with an appropriate allocation to risk according to the seasonal timeframe that we are in. Support on the large-cap benchmark can be pegged around major moving averages, which there are many following the breakout through the back half of March, including the 200-day at 4484 and the 50-day at 4411. The trend of momentum indicators is now deemed to be one of higher-highs and higher-lows and the benchmark enters the new month in a position of strength, despite the selloff in the final day of the month. We will adjust our stance should conditions warrant in the month ahead.
For the month ahead, the positive bias for the equity market continues with the S&P 500 Index returning 2.4% in the month of April over the past two decades. Positive results have been realized in 80% of periods. The range of results has been from a loss of 6.1% in April of 2002 to a gain of 12.7% in April of 2020. We break down everything that you need to know for the month ahead in our just released monthly report for April. Subscribe now and we’ll send it to you.
Just released…
Our monthly report for April is out, providing subscribers with a 103-page look at what is important in the month(s) ahead and how to position to best take advantage of the trends in the economy and the market.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of April
- Review of our 2022 Playbook
- Tracking the Spread of COVID
- Americans on the move, but plans are changing
- Cooling demand for energy commodities
- Elevated levels of concern
- Extreme pessimism
- Consumer prices remain on fire
- The change in Retail Sales holding above seasonal norms year-to-date, but we are not all that enthusiastic
- The snap-back of shipping activity
- Industrial Production
- Copper
- How to defend your portfolio this summer
- Spring is the time for real estate
- Existing Home Sales
- Medical devices
- Time to take a position in the bond market?
- April’s currency tailwind
- Watching the yield curve as it nears the precipice of inverting
- The Death Cross on the S&P 500 Index
- Finding direction in directionless markets
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of April
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in April
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox.
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Review of the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index
- Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market
- A preview of March’s Non-Farm Payroll report
- Natural Gas Inventories and the seasonal trade in the commodity
- Canada GDP
Subscribe now and we’ll send this report to you.
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.98.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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