Stock Market Outlook for March 15, 2022
S&P 500 Index has now recorded a death cross of the 50 and 200-day moving averages, but the history of this indicator shows that it is typically unreliable for trading signals outside of periods of economic weakness.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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First Trust Nasdaq Retail ETF (NASD:FTXD) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (NYSE:VEA) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF (NYSE:IYZ) Seasonal Chart
ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF (NYSE:EQL) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P Spin-Off ETF (NYSE:CSD) Seasonal Chart
ConAgra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) Seasonal Chart
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (TSE:OR.TO) Seasonal Chart
ARC Resources Ltd. (TSE:ARX.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
The extreme uncertainty in the market continues as investors monitor developments pertaining to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and as market participants anticipate the first Fed fund rate increase of this cycle. The S&P 500 Index closed down with a loss of just over seven-tenths of one percent on Monday, pushing back towards recent support at 4150. Short-term resistance continues to be pegged at the declining 20-day moving average. Momentum indicators have lost the traction derived over the past month and a half that provided a positive divergence versus price, which hinted of waning selling pressures. The trend of lower-lows and lower-highs on both MACD and RSI continues and characteristics of a bearish trend persist. Despite this revelation, and keeping in mind that the backdrop could change in a moments notice given the extreme nature of the headline risks, waning selling pressures can still be implied. No longer are we seeing those waterfall-type declines that we saw through the middle of January and the middle of February that we took decisive action to mitigate in our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio. A descending triangle pattern can be picked out on the chart with the lower limit presently pegged at 4050. As we look to ramp up risk again in our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio for the back half of March, this may be the ideal level to look to do so with the view that mean reversion into quarter-end will lift some of the depressed areas of the market, at least temporarily.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The Death Cross on the S&P 500 Index
- Yield on the 10-year treasury note reaching significant resistance
- Insurance stocks
- Notable upgrades and downgrades in this week’s chart books: The theme this week is mean reversion
- Nasdaq Composite reaching back to a significant range of support
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.97.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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