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Stock Market Outlook December 2, 2021


Short-term trend of the S&P 500 showing a declining megaphone pattern.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE:WHR) Seasonal Chart

Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE:WHR) Seasonal Chart

Taseko Mines Ltd. (TSE:TKO.TO) Seasonal Chart

Taseko Mines Ltd. (TSE:TKO.TO) Seasonal Chart

Universal Corp. (NYSE:UVV) Seasonal Chart

Universal Corp. (NYSE:UVV) Seasonal Chart

Canacol Energy Ltd. (TSE:CNE.TO) Seasonal Chart

Canacol Energy Ltd. (TSE:CNE.TO) Seasonal Chart

Entree Gold Inc. (TSE:ETG.TO) Seasonal Chart

Entree Gold Inc. (TSE:ETG.TO) Seasonal Chart

Rayonier, Inc. (NYSE:RYN) Seasonal Chart

Rayonier, Inc. (NYSE:RYN) Seasonal Chart

SSR Mining Inc. (TSE:SSRM.TO) Seasonal Chart

SSR Mining Inc. (TSE:SSRM.TO) Seasonal Chart

Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:HGH) Seasonal Chart

Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:HGH) Seasonal Chart

Sprott Physical Gold Silver Trust (TSE:CEF.TO) Seasonal Chart

Sprott Physical Gold Silver Trust (TSE:CEF.TO) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap Index ETF (TSE:VEE.TO) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap Index ETF (TSE:VEE.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares Canadian Universe Bond Index ETF (TSE:XBB.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares Canadian Universe Bond Index ETF (TSE:XBB.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares Emerging Markets Dividend ETF (AMEX:DVYE) Seasonal Chart

iShares Emerging Markets Dividend ETF (AMEX:DVYE) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF (NYSE:ECH) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF (NYSE:ECH) Seasonal Chart

iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:LQD) Seasonal Chart

iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:LQD) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Dynamic Media ETF (NYSE:PBS) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Dynamic Media ETF (NYSE:PBS) Seasonal Chart

VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE:RSX) Seasonal Chart

VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE:RSX) Seasonal Chart

 

 

 

The Markets

Stocks reversed solid gains charted just after the opening bell on Wednesday as the first Omicron variant was confirmed in the US.  The S&P 500 Index closed lower by over one percent, breaking below the rising 50-day moving average in the last fifteen minutes of trade.  This was being watched as a critical test and a level that we have been highlighting for weeks as providing the downside risk to this market.  While we cannot make too much of a move that was prominently derived within minutes of the closing bell, there are concerns for our seasonal trades here.  Resistance continues to be seen at the 20-day moving average.  Fortunately, from a strict calendar standpoint, we do have the purview to step back from risk for the short-term beyond the first week of December given the propensity for tax-loss selling pushing down stocks through the middle of the month.  We cannot help but think, however, that some of this end-of-year portfolio rebalancing has already been undertaken and/or corrected in recent days.  The next timeframe to be fully exposed to risk is the last half of December, therefore, any weakness derived between then and now presents a buying opportunity, so long as the news flow permits.  We are facing a critical test of the intermediate-term trend that warrants close monitoring.

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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • An hourly look at the large-cap benchmark
  • Review of the percent of stocks trading above 50-day moving averages and waiting for the “hook”
  • The list of securities that have gained and lost in every December over their trading history
  • US petroleum inventories and looking forward to the start of the period of seasonal strength for energy
  • US Construction Spending

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Just released…

Our monthly report for December is out, providing everything that you need to know for the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

  • Equity market tendencies in the month of December
  • Tracking the spread of COVID
  • REITs
  • Previous resistance as support
  • Small Caps
  • Financial Loan Activity
  • Copper
  • Manufacturer Sentiment
  • Hints that supply-chain bottlenecks are alleviating
  • Treasury Bonds
  • Real return of bonds
  • Mid-term election year tendency for stocks
  • Dazed and confused by pot stocks
  • The technical status of the S&P 500 Index
  • Examining gauges of market breadth
  • Time to rotate to Canadian equities?
  • Gold
  • US Dollar
  • Positioning for the months ahead
  • Sector reviews and ratings
  • Stocks that have frequently gained in the month of December
  • Notable stocks and ETFs entering their period of strength in December

Subscribe now and we’ll send this outlook to you.

With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for December, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every December over their trading history.  While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy.  Below are the results:

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And how about those securities that have never gained in this twelfth month of the year, here they are:

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*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned.  We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.92.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) Seasonal Chart Marvell Technology, Inc. Seasonal Chart Dollar General Corporation Seasonal Chart Kroger Company (The) Seasonal Chart Ulta Beauty, Inc. Seasonal Chart The Cooper Companies, Inc. Seasonal Chart Guidewire Software, Inc. Seasonal Chart Signet Jewelers Limited Seasonal Chart Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart Verint Systems Inc. Seasonal Chart Methode Electronics, Inc. Seasonal Chart Zumiez Inc. Seasonal Chart Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Seasonal Chart Lands' End, Inc. Seasonal Chart Veru Inc. Seasonal Chart Tilly's, Inc. Seasonal Chart Duluth Holdings Inc. Seasonal Chart Ooma, Inc. Seasonal Chart Kirkland's, Inc. Seasonal Chart Express, Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

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