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Stock Market Outlook for September 1, 2021


Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a loss of 0.8% in September with a large dispersion of results around the mean.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASD:CSCO) Seasonal Chart

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASD:CSCO) Seasonal Chart

The Travelers Cos., Inc. (NYSE:TRV) Seasonal Chart

The Travelers Cos., Inc. (NYSE:TRV) Seasonal Chart

JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASD:JBLU) Seasonal Chart

JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASD:JBLU) Seasonal Chart

Msc Industrial Direct Co. (NYSE:MSM) Seasonal Chart

Msc Industrial Direct Co. (NYSE:MSM) Seasonal Chart

NetScout Systems, Inc. (NASD:NTCT) Seasonal Chart

NetScout Systems, Inc. (NASD:NTCT) Seasonal Chart

Chatham Lodging Trust (NYSE:CLDT) Seasonal Chart

Chatham Lodging Trust (NYSE:CLDT) Seasonal Chart

S&T Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:STBA) Seasonal Chart

S&T Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:STBA) Seasonal Chart

China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (NYSE:LFC) Seasonal Chart

China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (NYSE:LFC) Seasonal Chart

Kimball Intl, Inc. (NASD:KBAL) Seasonal Chart

Kimball Intl, Inc. (NASD:KBAL) Seasonal Chart

First Trust Multi Cap Value AlphaDEX Fund (NASD:FAB) Seasonal Chart

First Trust Multi Cap Value AlphaDEX Fund (NASD:FAB) Seasonal Chart

Cronos Group, Inc. (TSE:CRON.TO) Seasonal Chart

Cronos Group, Inc. (TSE:CRON.TO) Seasonal Chart

First Asset US & Canada Lifeco Income ETF (TSE:FLI.TO) Seasonal Chart

First Asset US & Canada Lifeco Income ETF (TSE:FLI.TO) Seasonal Chart

Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSE:DBJP) Seasonal Chart

Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSE:DBJP) Seasonal Chart

ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NYSE:REGL) Seasonal Chart

ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NYSE:REGL) Seasonal Chart

Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (NYSE:SCHV) Seasonal Chart

Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (NYSE:SCHV) Seasonal Chart

ProShares Russell 2000 Dividend Growers ETF (NYSE:SMDV) Seasonal Chart

ProShares Russell 2000 Dividend Growers ETF (NYSE:SMDV) Seasonal Chart

SPDR MSCI ACWI IMI ETF (AMEX:SPGM) Seasonal Chart

SPDR MSCI ACWI IMI ETF (AMEX:SPGM) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (AMEX:SPHD) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (AMEX:SPHD) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSE:VYM) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSE:VYM) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks traded mixed on Tuesday as investors conducted their final trades before the end of the month.  The S&P 500 Index slipped by just over a tenth of one percent, peeling back slightly from the record high charted in the previous session.  The benchmark continues to battle around the mid-point to the approximately 200-point trading range that hovers between 4400 and 4600.  Intermediate support at the rising 50-day moving average remains solid.  MACD, while still showing characteristics of a bullish trend, continues to negatively diverge from price, indicative of waning buying demand.

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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • A look at the monthly chart of the large-cap benchmark
  • Average tendency for the S&P 500 Index in September
  • Securities that have gained in each September over their trading history
  • The trend of home prices in the US and what it implies for the strength of the economy
  • Canadian GDP: What is driving the performance and what it says about what to expect for the health of the economy through the end of the year.

Subscribe now and we’ll send this outlook to you.

For the month ahead, the large-cap benchmark has struggled in its last month of the third quarter, producing an average loss of 0.8% over the past 20 years.  September has historically been the weakest month of the year amidst the period of volatility for stocks that has produced a wide range of results.  The weakest September performance in the past two decades was in 2002 when the benchmark dropped by 11.0% amidst the recession that followed the Tech bubble, while the best September performance was realized in 2010 amidst the rebound from the recession attributed to the Great Financial Crisis.  Obviously the comparison to these recessionary/post-recessionary periods are difficult to make given that the economy is quite strong and the market has already rebounded substantially from the lows charted in March of 2020.  It is fair to say that, barring some catalyst to the contrary, a result around the average change for this last month of the third quarter is a reasonable bet as normal September volatility keeps investors on edge as they return to work and school.  We break down everything to expect in the month(s) ahead in our monthly report to subscribers that was just released on Tuesday.

S&P 500 Index Seasonal Chart

$SPX Monthly Averages

Just Released…

Our monthly report for September is out and it’s a long one.  At 116 pages, this is our largest report yet.

Highlights in this report include:

  • Equity market tendencies in the month of September
  • Price of Copper hinting of the cooling of the growth in the economy
  • The decline in the price of oil
  • The currency impact: US and Canadian Dollars
  • The seasonal trade in Natural Gas
  • The willingness of consumers to spend
  • The Retail Industry
  • Consumer sentiment
  • Bond market regaining levels of long-term support
  • Emerging markets
  • Strong demand for vehicles, look towards these stocks
  • The encouraging signal that suggests homebuilders are moving past supply chain backlogs that burdened them this spring
  • The strength of industrial production
  • How are the manufacturers feeling about their prospects ahead?
  • Shipping demand and the period of seasonal strength for the transportation sector
  • Investment services: A hedge against volatility?
  • Seasonal play in agriculture stocks
  • The second of the weakest two-week spans in the equity market
  • The technical status of the S&P 500 Index
  • What the technical indicators are saying about breadth
  • Positioning for the months ahead
  • Sector reviews and ratings
  • Stocks that have frequently gained in the month of September
  • Notable stocks and ETFs entering their period of strength in September

Subscribe now and we’ll send this report directly to your inbox.

With the new month now upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for September, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every September over their trading history.  While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy.  Below are the results:

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And how about those securities that have never gained in this ninth month of the year, here they are:

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*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned.  We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.89.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Veeva Systems Inc. Seasonal Chart Campbell Soup Company Seasonal Chart Five Below, Inc. Seasonal Chart C3.ai, Inc. Seasonal Chart Semtech Corporation Seasonal Chart Greif, Inc. Seasonal Chart Dycom Industries, Inc. Seasonal Chart Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Seasonal Chart Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart Conn's, Inc. Seasonal Chart REX American Resources Corporation Seasonal Chart Vera Bradley, Inc. Seasonal Chart eGain Corporation Seasonal Chart Culp, Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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Sponsored By...
Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

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