Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for May 14, 2021

How to play the breakout of the CRB commodity index above long-term declining trendline resistance.

 

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Telephone & Data Systems Inc. (NYSE:TDS) Seasonal Chart

Sempra Energy (NYSE:SRE) Seasonal Chart

Independent Bank Corp. (NASD:INDB) Seasonal Chart

LivePerson, Inc. (NASD:LPSN) Seasonal Chart

TrustCo Bank Corp NY (NASD:TRST) Seasonal Chart

Arrow Financial Corp. (NASD:AROW) Seasonal Chart

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE:AEM) Seasonal Chart

Yelp Inc. (NYSE:YELP) Seasonal Chart

Invesco India ETF (NYSE:PIN) Seasonal Chart

Boston Beer Co. Cl A (NYSE:SAM) Seasonal Chart

America’s Car-Mart, Inc. (NASD:CRMT) Seasonal Chart

UMH Properties, Inc. (NYSE:UMH) Seasonal Chart

Washington R E I T (NYSE:WRE) Seasonal Chart

CECO Environmental Corp. (NASD:CECE) Seasonal Chart

VanEck Vectors Environmental Services ETF (NYSE:EVX) Seasonal Chart

WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSE:EPI) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSE:EWC) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks rebounded from Wednesday’s selloff to post solid gains amidst ongoing optimism pertaining to the reopening of the economy following news that the CDC is alleviating their mask requirement.  The S&P 500 Index bounced by 1.22%, keeping this dance within the rising intermediate trading range alive.  The lower limit of the span was tested in the prior session around 4,065, while the upper limit is pushing beyond 4,250.  Momentum indicators remain on sell signals, although they continue to show characteristics of a bullish trend, holding predominantly above their middle lines.  The 20-day moving average is in a position of resistance.  Despite the threatening move lower recorded mid-week, this is still a market this is showing an easier time breaking levels of resistance than support, conducive to maintaining the intermediate and long-term trends of higher-highs and higher lows.  Until we see something actionable to suggest a bullish bias is no longer warranted, moving with the ebbs and flows that are typical of this weaker six month period for stocks is appropriate.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• Weekly jobless claims and what the results have to say about the health of the labor market and the trajectory of the economy
• Natural Gas: The technical, fundamental, and seasonal trends trends for the energy commodity
• The long-term breakout in the CRB commodity index and how to play it
• Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Highest put-call ratio since November

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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 1.00.  This is the highest level since the start of November and indicative of portfolio managers putting on hedges, by way of puts, in order to protect themselves against the possibility of further equity market weakness.  This bearish shift is a positive revelation as it lowers the risk of a shock decline in stocks, should a catalyst materialize to shake investors loose of their long allocations.

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

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