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Stock Market Outlook for May 3, 2021


S&P 500 Index has averaged a gain of 0.4% in the month of May with 70% of periods closing higher over the past 20 years.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE:WM) Seasonal Chart

Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE:WM) Seasonal Chart

Equity Residential Property Trust (NYSE:EQR) Seasonal Chart

Equity Residential Property Trust (NYSE:EQR) Seasonal Chart

Repligen Corp. (NASD:RGEN) Seasonal Chart

Repligen Corp. (NASD:RGEN) Seasonal Chart

Sapiens Intl Corp. N.V. (NASD:SPNS) Seasonal Chart

Sapiens Intl Corp. N.V. (NASD:SPNS) Seasonal Chart

Chesapeake Utilities Corp. (NYSE:CPK) Seasonal Chart

Chesapeake Utilities Corp. (NYSE:CPK) Seasonal Chart

Welltower Inc. (NYSE:WELL) Seasonal Chart

Welltower Inc. (NYSE:WELL) Seasonal Chart

iShares Canadian Real Return Bond Index ETF (TSE:XRB.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares Canadian Real Return Bond Index ETF (TSE:XRB.TO) Seasonal Chart

Eaton Vance National Municial Opportunities Trust (NYSE:EOT) Seasonal Chart

Eaton Vance National Municial Opportunities Trust (NYSE:EOT) Seasonal Chart

Invesco 1-30 Laddered Treasury ETF (NASD:PLW) Seasonal Chart

Invesco 1-30 Laddered Treasury ETF (NASD:PLW) Seasonal Chart

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) Seasonal Chart

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) Seasonal Chart

Golar LNG Ltd (NASD:GLNG) Seasonal Chart

Golar LNG Ltd (NASD:GLNG) Seasonal Chart

Seagen (NASD:SGEN) Seasonal Chart

Seagen (NASD:SGEN) Seasonal Chart

Blue Ribbon Income Fund (TSE:RBN/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Blue Ribbon Income Fund (TSE:RBN/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks drifted lower in the last session of April as portfolio managers conducted their final trades before the end of the month.  The S&P 500 Index dipped by seven-tenths of one percent, keeping this grind around all-time highs intact.  The large-cap benchmark has been bumping up against the limits of its rising intermediate trend channel that spans approximately between 4025 and 4250.  Rising short-term support has quickly caught up to the benchmark, providing a variable hurdle for traders to shoot against below.  Momentum indicators remain on sell signals following bearish crossovers triggered in the past couple of weeks, however, they are still showing characteristics of a bullish trend, holding predominantly above their middle lines.  This remains a market that is within an intermediate-term trend of higher-highs and higher-lows and, while short-term periods of weakness can materialize at any moment for any reason, it would be pure speculation to suggest we are near a significant peak.

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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • Monthly look at the S&P 500 Index
  • Tendency for the market in the month of May
  • Exchange listed securities that have gained in every May over their trading history
  • Canada GDP: What is driving the results and the areas that the economic trends are saying to favour in our investment portfolio

Subscribe now and we’ll send this outlook to you.

For the month ahead, May marks the start of the weaker six months of the year for stocks and the average return for this fifth month of the year is representative of this lacklustre pattern ahead.  The S&P 500 Index has averaged a gain of 0.4% in May over the past 20 years, however, the frequency of positive results is still upbeat at 70%.  The results over this two decade span range from a loss of 8.2% in May of 2010 to a gain of 5.3% in May of 2009.  In our monthly report that has just been released to subscribers, we highlight the things to look out for and how to approach this weaker time of year for stocks.  Subscribe now.

S&P 500 Index Seasonal Chart

$SPX Monthly Averages

Just Released…

Our monthly report for May has now been released, providing you with insight on how to position for the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

  • Equity market tendencies in the month of May
  • A deep-dive of the strategy of “Sell In May and Go Away” – Does it work?
  • Tracking the trend of COVID cases compared to the seasonal norm
  • Opportunity to take advantage of the dip in stocks in India
  • Defense or Offense: Industry groups that provide the best of both worlds during the summer
  • How to gain exposure to the return-to-normal
  • Spring is the time for real estate
  • Discussion on the low Inventory of homes and the economic implications
  • Cutting exposure to the home builders
  • Waning momentum in the labor market
  • Seasonal trade in Gold
  • Bitcoin
  • Time to take a position in the bond market?
  • Market valuations look to have peaked
  • Logical point for credit spreads to stall
  • Canadian Dollar
  • The technical status of the S&P 500 Index
  • Where we are in the bull market cycle
  • Choppy seas ahead
  • Hints of waning breadth
  • Positioning for the months ahead
  • Sector reviews and ratings
  • Stocks that have frequently gained in the month of May
  • Notable stocks and ETFs entering their period of strength in May

Subscribe now and we’ll send this 96-page report to you.

With the new month now upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for May, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every May over their trading history.  While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy.  Below are the results:

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*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned.  We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet can be filtered.

In January, we announced that we had added the monthly average returns and monthly frequency of gains for each investment to our downloadable spreadsheet that is available to yearly subscribers (if you are a monthly subscriber and have been with us for over a year, feel free to reach out to us to request a copy).  The inclusion of this data allows for more detailed data mining all from the convenience of a filterable spreadsheet.  The possibilities are endless.  Filter the results down to all the stocks in the market with at least 20 years of data that have gained in at least 80% of Mays, find all of the stocks that show an optimal holding period that begins in June with strong average returns in July and August, or drill down to all of the stocks that correlate strongly with the period of seasonal strength for the sector in which it is categorized.  We continue to look for opportunities to include the results of some filters that our audience may find of interest in our regular reports.  Annual subscribers can login and download this spreadsheet in the “Download” section of the chart database at https://charts.equityclock.com/.

Not subscribed yet?  Visit the following link and signup to the yearly subscription option and you can download the spreadsheet too: https://charts.equityclock.com/subscribe

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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.95.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (The) Seasonal Chart Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Seasonal Chart Itau Unibanco Banco Holding SA Seasonal Chart Suncor Energy Inc. Seasonal Chart Nutrien Ltd. Seasonal Chart WEC Energy Group, Inc. Seasonal Chart Williams Companies, Inc. (The) Seasonal Chart American Water Works Seasonal Chart Realty Income Corporation Seasonal Chart ON Semiconductor Corporation Seasonal Chart Avangrid, Inc. Seasonal Chart XPO Logistics, Inc. Seasonal Chart Diamondback Energy, Inc. Seasonal Chart SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. Seasonal Chart Loews Corporation Seasonal Chart Mosaic Company (The) Seasonal Chart Chegg, Inc. Seasonal Chart CNA Financial Corporation Seasonal Chart Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. Seasonal Chart Qiagen N.V. Seasonal Chart Service Corporation International Seasonal Chart Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. Seasonal Chart Vornado Realty Trust Seasonal Chart Woodward, Inc. Seasonal Chart Freshpet, Inc. Seasonal Chart Leggett & Platt, Incorporated Seasonal Chart Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. Seasonal Chart Brixmor Property Group Inc. Seasonal Chart Ballard Power Systems, Inc. Seasonal Chart BWX Technologies, Inc. Seasonal Chart Avis Budget Group, Inc. Seasonal Chart Regal Beloit Corporation Seasonal Chart Varonis Systems, Inc. Seasonal Chart Crane Co. Seasonal Chart Flowserve Corporation Seasonal Chart Chemours Company (The) Seasonal Chart Agree Realty Corporation Seasonal Chart Itron, Inc. Seasonal Chart ONE Gas, Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

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