Stock Market Outlook for February 10, 2021
Yesterday it was China, today it’s the World: International ETFs are entering their optimal holding periods.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) Seasonal Chart
Quanta Services, Inc. (NYSE:PWR) Seasonal Chart
Teekay Tankers Ltd. (NYSE:TNK) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSE:EFA) Seasonal Chart
Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASD:ATVI) Seasonal Chart
Quaker Chemical Corp. (NYSE:KWR) Seasonal Chart
Universal Electronics, Inc. (NASD:UEIC) Seasonal Chart
Nordic American Tanker Shipping Ltd. (NYSE:NAT) Seasonal Chart
Baytex Energy Corp. (NYSE:BTE) Seasonal Chart
Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR) Seasonal Chart
GoDaddy Inc. (NYSE:GDDY) Seasonal Chart
Ctrip.com Intl Ltd. (NASD:TCOM) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (NASD:ACWI) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF (NASD:ACWX) Seasonal Chart
SPDR MSCI ACWI ex-US ETF (NYSE:CWI) Seasonal Chart
WisdomTree International MidCap Dividend Fund (NYSE:DIM) Seasonal Chart
WisdomTree International Equity Fund (NYSE:DWM) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF (NYSE:EFG) Seasonal Chart
Schwab International Equity ETF (NYSE:SCHF) Seasonal Chart
SPDR STOXX Europe 50 ETF (NYSE:SPEU) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (NYSE:VEA) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSE:VGK) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks traded mixed on Tuesday as investors digested the gains recorded in the prior session. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by just over a tenth of one percent, remaining above the psychologically important 3900 level that was broken on Monday. Again, at risk of sounding like a broken record, support remains apparent at the rising 50-day moving average and short-term support at the 20-day moving average has been retaken. MACD continues to spit out buy and sell signals, this time revealing a signal to buy as the momentum indicator crosses over its signal line in a bullish manner. Momentum indicators continue to show characteristics of a bullish trend with both MACD and RSI holding predominantly above their middle lines. The short and intermediate-term rising trends remain nice and steady. Although in recent weeks various sentiment indicators have leaned in an overly bullish manner, suggesting complacency, and volume has waned in recent days, there is nothing on the chart of the large-cap index to suggest that the rising path is unsustainable. A catalyst looks to be required in order to dislodge this grind higher, but with fundamental data continuing to show results that are inline to better than average, there is nothing on our radar to point to as being threatening from a fundamental perspective. This continues to be a Buy the Dip market, quite slimily, until something changes.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- A look at the short-term trend of the large-cap benchmark and what would warrant concern for the positive rising trend
- International ETFs entering their optimal holding period today and the prospect for global equity benchmarks through the year(s) ahead
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
- Investor and institutional sentiment
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On the economic front, we received insight on how many jobs employers are seeking to fill as the economy attempts to transition back to a state of normalcy. The headline print of December’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) indicated that job openings increased by 1.1% to 6.646 million. Just for context, as of December’s employment situation report, there were 10.7 million individuals that were declared unemployed, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, providing a ratio of unemployed to openings that is still close to 1.6 to 1. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, job openings actually declined by 2.2% in December, which is less than half of the 4.8% decline that is average for the last month of the year. For the year, overall, openings were higher by 3.4%, which is weaker than the 6.1% increase that is normal, but much stronger than the 10.8% decline that was realized in 2019, before the pandemic took its toll. We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday. Subscribe now.
Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.67.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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