Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for December 4, 2020

Every once in a while lightening strikes: Since highlighted to subscribers on Monday due to a bearish fundamental backdrop for the commodity, the Inverse Natural Gas ETF (KOLD) is higher by over 30% in a matter of days.

 

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Western Forest Products Inc. (TSE:WEF.TO) Seasonal Chart

Western Digital Corp. (NASD:WDC) Seasonal Chart

Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais (Cemig) (NYSE:CIG) Seasonal Chart

Tidewater, Inc. (NYSE:TDW) Seasonal Chart

World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:WWE) Seasonal Chart

Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE:HR) Seasonal Chart

Kraton Corp. (NYSE:KRA) Seasonal Chart

Utah Medical Products, Inc. (NASD:UTMD) Seasonal Chart

RBC Quant EAFE Dividend Leaders ETF (TSE:RID.TO) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard FTSE Developed All Cap ex U.S. Index ETF (TSE:VDU.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (NYSE:EWN) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed essentially unchanged on Thursday, giving back earlier gains following headlines that Pfizer was dialling back its vaccine rollout plan due to supply chain issues.  The S&P 500 Index closed lower by a mere 0.06%, still holding around record high territory.  Support at rising 20 and 50 day moving averages can now be seen at 3592 and and 3475, providing a backstop to the short and intermediate-term trends.  Momentum indicators are maintaining an upward tilt, but the slope has certainly waned in recent days as investors weigh the record high levels of stock prices.  Seasonally, the next couple of weeks is the period that portfolio managers typically execute tax loss selling trades, applying a bit of a negative bias to prices until the notorious Santa Claus rally period begins in the days surrounding the Christmas holiday.  We provide more insight in our monthly outlook for December, which has now been uploaded.  Subscribe now to access this report.

Today, in our Market Outlook for subscribers, we discuss the following:

• Emerging Markets
• The continued decline in the US Dollar
• Weekly Jobless Claims and what it means for the labor market
• Outlook for the monthly Nonfarm Payroll report
• Natural Gas and what the fundamental outlook has to say about the price of the commodity
• Vehicle Sales for November
• Profits booked in very lucrative seasonal trade

Subscribe now and we’ll send this outlook to you.

On Friday, the monthly US payroll report for November will be released before the opening bell.  Analysts are expecting a headline print of 500,000, down from the 638,000 reported previous.  On average, before the seasonal adjustments, payrolls increase by 0.2% in November, which would imply the addition of 287,000 jobs in the month.  The year-to-date change in payrolls is on a path towards normalization, but still much more is required to get back to levels that are average for this time of year.  The path towards normalization is likely to take years.  We’ll break down the results of November’s payrolls in a report that we’ll release intraday to subscribers.

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.65.

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

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