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Stock Market Outlook for May 11, 2020


Canada has seen a greater toll from the coronavirus shutdown with employment down by 16.2% through the first four months of the year.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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eBay, Inc. (NASD:EBAY) Seasonal Chart

eBay, Inc. (NASD:EBAY) Seasonal Chart

Intuit, Inc. (NASD:INTU) Seasonal Chart

Intuit, Inc. (NASD:INTU) Seasonal Chart

Altus Group Ltd. (TSE:AIF.TO) Seasonal Chart

Altus Group Ltd. (TSE:AIF.TO) Seasonal Chart

Edgewell Personal Care Co. (NYSE:EPC) Seasonal Chart

Edgewell Personal Care Co. (NYSE:EPC) Seasonal Chart

American States Water Co. (NYSE:AWR) Seasonal Chart

American States Water Co. (NYSE:AWR) Seasonal Chart

Overstock.com Inc. (NASD:OSTK) Seasonal Chart

Overstock.com Inc. (NASD:OSTK) Seasonal Chart

Douglas Dynamics Inc. (NYSE:PLOW) Seasonal Chart

Douglas Dynamics Inc. (NYSE:PLOW) Seasonal Chart

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASD:AMPH) Seasonal Chart

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASD:AMPH) Seasonal Chart

VanEck Vectors Biotech ETF (NASD:BBH) Seasonal Chart

VanEck Vectors Biotech ETF (NASD:BBH) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (NYSE:BLV) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (NYSE:BLV) Seasonal Chart

iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASD:IBB) Seasonal Chart

iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASD:IBB) Seasonal Chart

iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSE:IVW) Seasonal Chart

iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSE:IVW) Seasonal Chart

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASD:TLT) Seasonal Chart

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASD:TLT) Seasonal Chart

Amgen, Inc. (NASD:AMGN) Seasonal Chart

Amgen, Inc. (NASD:AMGN) Seasonal Chart

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (TSE:AQN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (TSE:AQN.TO) Seasonal Chart

CME Group Inc. (NASD:CME) Seasonal Chart

CME Group Inc. (NASD:CME) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks jumped higher on Friday as investors put the weak read of US employment in the rear-view mirror.  The S&P 500 Index gained 1.69%, overcoming horizontal resistance that capped the market’s advance in recent days at 2900.  Momentum indicators, which had been rolling over in recent days, have ticked back higher.  MACD, which had appeared poised to trigger a sell signal by crossing below its signal line, has ratcheted back higher; the MACD histogram expanded for the first time since the end of April.  The benchmark remains bound by major moving averages with the 200-day in a position of resistance, while the 20 and 50-day averages are in positions of support.

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On the economic front, employment reports were released on both sides of the border on Friday.  First up, the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that 20.5 million payrolls were lost in the US last month, which is the largest one month decline for payrolls on record. Analysts had expected a decline of 21.5 million. The unemployment rate ticked higher by 10.3% to 14.7%, representing the highest jobless rate since the Depression era. Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, surged by 4.7%, which far surpasses the consensus analyst estimate that called for a rise of a mere 0.3%. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, payrolls actually declined by 19.5 million, or 13.0%, in April, which is a negative divergence compared to the 0.7% increase that is average for this time of year. The year-to-date change is now down by 14.3%, far below the 0.3% decline that is average through the first four months of the year.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday.  Signup now and we’ll send you our report.

Total Nonfarm Seasonal Chart

North of the border, the employment situation is equally dire.  The headline print of April’s Labour Force Survey in Canada indicates that employment declined by 1.993 million, which was marginally stronger than the consensus estimate that called for a loss of 1.8 million. The unemployment rate surged higher from 7.8% to 13.0%, which was weaker than the consensus analyst estimate that called for a rate of 12.5%. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, employment actually declined by 1.845 million, or 10.3%, in April, representing the weakest monthly change on record. The average change for the month is an increase of 0.7%. Year-to-date, employment is down by 16.2%, a drawdown not matched by any time in at least the past four decades of data that we have on record.   We sent out a separate report breaking down the results for subscribers.  Subscribe to receive this and other distributions that will get you up to speed with what is actually happening in the economy, rather than how the seasonal adjustments perceive the economic data to be.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/v2064890_seasonal_chart.PNG

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Marriott International Seasonal Chart Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart Ecopetrol S.A. Seasonal Chart Energy Transfer L.P. Seasonal Chart Entergy Corporation Seasonal Chart Simon Property Group, Inc. Seasonal Chart Ameren Corporation Seasonal Chart Cardinal Health, Inc. Seasonal Chart International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc. Seasonal Chart Amcor plc Seasonal Chart Cable One, Inc. Seasonal Chart Mylan N.V. Seasonal Chart Logitech International S.A. Seasonal Chart Genpact Limited Seasonal Chart ON Semiconductor Corporation Seasonal Chart Caesars Entertainment Corporation Seasonal Chart American Financial Group, Inc. Seasonal Chart Acceleron Pharma Inc. Seasonal Chart Continental Resources, Inc. Seasonal Chart Under Armour, Inc. Seasonal Chart Choice Hotels International, Inc. Seasonal Chart TerraForm Power, Inc. Seasonal Chart j2 Global, Inc. Seasonal Chart Coty Inc. Seasonal Chart GW Pharmaceuticals Plc Seasonal Chart ChemoCentryx, Inc. Seasonal Chart bluebird bio, Inc. Seasonal Chart AutoNation, Inc. Seasonal Chart Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. Seasonal Chart Ormat Technologies, Inc. Seasonal Chart II-VI Incorporated Seasonal Chart Howard Hughes Corporation (The) Seasonal Chart Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Seasonal Chart Mimecast Limited Seasonal Chart Quaker Chemical Corporation Seasonal Chart Diodes Incorporated Seasonal Chart Univar Solutions Inc. Seasonal Chart Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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