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Stock Market Outlook for May 6, 2020


Natural gas prices breaking above a bottoming pattern as the commodity continues to climb during its period of seasonal strength.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Ensign Group Inc. (NASD:ENSG) Seasonal Chart

Ensign Group Inc. (NASD:ENSG) Seasonal Chart

United Fire & Casualty Co. (NASD:UFCS) Seasonal Chart

United Fire & Casualty Co. (NASD:UFCS) Seasonal Chart

Universal Health Realty Income Trust (NYSE:UHT) Seasonal Chart

Universal Health Realty Income Trust (NYSE:UHT) Seasonal Chart

S.Y. Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:SYBT) Seasonal Chart

S.Y. Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:SYBT) Seasonal Chart

Cass Commercial Corp. (NASD:CASS) Seasonal Chart

Cass Commercial Corp. (NASD:CASS) Seasonal Chart

CorVel Corp. (NASD:CRVL) Seasonal Chart

CorVel Corp. (NASD:CRVL) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks managed to eke out a gain on Tuesday as oil prices continued to rebound amidst optimism pertaining to the reopening of the economy.  The S&P 500 Index closed higher by nine-tenths of one percent, which was well off of the high of the session that saw a gain of 1.91%.  A bull/bear battle has begun.  The large-cap benchmark moved into the downside gap that was charted during Friday’s session, but ultimately failed, rather abruptly, at the upper limit of the gap-range at 2900.  While cognizant that we are sounding like a broken record, momentum indicators on the daily chart continue to roll over with MACD converging on its signal line.  A bearish crossover with respect to MACD appears imminent.  The benchmark remains bound by a number of major moving averages with the 200-day in a position of significant resistance and the 20 and 50-day averages in positions of support.  The benchmark appears to be coiling, preparing for some kind of explosive move.

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We highlighted our exposure to natural gas a few weeks ago and we just got a nice payday on Tuesday.  The price of natural gas jumped by over 7% on the day, moving above recent short-term highs and resolving a head-and-shoulders bottoming pattern that saw its neckline around $2.00.  The bottoming pattern projects upside towards $2.45, although theory and reality don’t always align.  The commodity is presently testing resistance around its declining 200-day moving average.  Seasonally, natural gas prices tend to rise between April and June.

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Natural Gas Futures (NG) Seasonal Chart

On the economic front, Statscan released trade data for the month of March.  The headline print showed that the Canadian trade deficit expanded to $1.4 billion in March from $0.9 billion previous.  The result was narrower than the consensus analyst estimate that called for a deficit of $2.0 billion.  Imports in the country fell by 3.5%, while exports declined by 4.7%.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, imports actually increased by 9.2% in March, while exports increased by 8.1%.  The average change for this time of year is +14.2% and +13.5%, respectively.  Both imports and exports are trending below their seasonal norms, year-to-date, a path that had been apparent prior to the coronavirus related shutdown during the month of March.  The hardest hit areas on the export side include energy products, machinery, transportation equipment, and furniture/fixtures.  Obviously, much like everything else in the economy, the trends are disconnected from seasonal norms.  Subscribers can login to view the seasonal charts for this report at the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/canadian-international-merchandise-trade-exports-imports

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/v1001826194_seasonal_chart.PNG

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/v1001826806_seasonal_chart.PNG

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.89.

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Upcoming Presentation

The Money Show will be holding a Canadian Webinar series on May 7th, titled “Opportunities and Strategies for What Comes Next.”   We’ll be presenting at 5:20pm ET on the topic of “Using Seasonality to Invest in an Abnormal Economic Environment.”  Attendance is free.  Click the banner below to reserve your spot now.

 

 

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Novo Nordisk A/S Seasonal Chart PayPal Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart T-Mobile US, Inc. Seasonal Chart CVS Health Corporation Seasonal Chart Shopify Inc. Seasonal Chart Zoetis Inc. Seasonal Chart Equinix, Inc. Seasonal Chart Global Payments Inc. Seasonal Chart Barrick Gold Corporation Seasonal Chart Waste Management, Inc. Seasonal Chart American Electric Power Company, Inc. Seasonal Chart MetLife, Inc. Seasonal Chart General Motors Company Seasonal Chart Square, Inc. Seasonal Chart Eversource Energy Seasonal Chart Franco-Nevada Corporation Seasonal Chart Manulife Financial Corp Seasonal Chart Fresenius Medical Care Corporation Seasonal Chart Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Seasonal Chart AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Seasonal Chart Waste Connections, Inc. Seasonal Chart ANSYS, Inc. Seasonal Chart American Water Works Seasonal Chart KKR & Co. Inc. Seasonal Chart Nutrien Ltd. Seasonal Chart Welltower Inc. Seasonal Chart Ringcentral, Inc. Seasonal Chart IAC/InterActiveCorp Seasonal Chart Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. Seasonal Chart Fortis Inc. Seasonal Chart Fortinet, Inc. Seasonal Chart Essex Property Trust, Inc. Seasonal Chart Fox Corporation Seasonal Chart CDW Corporation Seasonal Chart Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Seasonal Chart Vulcan Materials Company Seasonal Chart Telefonica Brasil S.A. Seasonal Chart Liberty Global plc Seasonal Chart AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC. Seasonal Chart Pioneer Natural Resources Company Seasonal Chart Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. Seasonal Chart Evergy, Inc. Seasonal Chart Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Seasonal Chart Atmos Energy Corporation Seasonal Chart Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. Seasonal Chart Exact Sciences Corporation Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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