Contact | RSS Feed

Stock Market Outlook for March 26, 2020


Durable goods orders have shown the best pace to start the year since 2003, but this will be expected to change as the toll from the coronavirus is realized.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) Seasonal Chart

American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) Seasonal Chart

Intertape Polymer Group, Inc. (TSE:ITP.TO) Seasonal Chart

Intertape Polymer Group, Inc. (TSE:ITP.TO) Seasonal Chart

United Dominion Realty Trust (NYSE:UDR) Seasonal Chart

United Dominion Realty Trust (NYSE:UDR) Seasonal Chart

World Acceptance Corp. (NASD:WRLD) Seasonal Chart

World Acceptance Corp. (NASD:WRLD) Seasonal Chart

U.S. Auto Parts Network Inc. (NASD:PRTS) Seasonal Chart

U.S. Auto Parts Network Inc. (NASD:PRTS) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed higher on Wednesday, albeit well off of the high of the session, as investors reacted positively to news that US senators had reached a deal on a economic relief package.  The S&P 500 Index added 1.15%, trading above the recent consolidation low that topped out around 2450.  Daily momentum indicators are attempting to curl higher as stocks seek to alleviate their oversold state.  Our eye to the sky is focussed on potential resistance around 2700, a level that the bears may seek to re-take control of the equity benchmark.  We’ve laid out the probable path for stocks in our subscriber exclusive reports released in the past week.  So far the market appears to be following the pattern that we expected of it, but we must remain on our toes for a return of the erratic trading action that will make accurate forecasts difficult to derive.  We’ve provided further insight on the technicals that we are watching in our subscriber exclusive market outlook emailed directly to members nightly.  Subscribe now to be included on our list.

image

On the economic front, a report on durable goods orders in the US was released before Wednesday’s opening bell.  The headline print of February’s report indicated that new orders of durable goods in the US increased by 1.2% in February, which is a significant beat versus the consensus analyst estimate that called for a decline of 0.7%. Core capital goods, however, were down by 0.8%, which was weaker than the 0.4% decline that was forecast. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, the value of manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods industries actually increased by 7.0% in February, which is stronger than the 5.6% increase that is average for the second month of the year. The year-to-date change is now hovering 5.4% above the seasonal average trend, which is the best pace since 2003.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday.  Signup now to be included on this and future distributions.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/UMDMNO_seasonal_chart.PNG

Also released on Wednesday was the latest tally of petroleum inventories in the US.  Aside from the plunge in the production of gasoline and the level of product supplied in the latest week, the results still look fairly normal.  The change in the level of oil inventories is trending just slightly above average, while the change in gasoline stockpiles is trending below the seasonal norm.  Domestic production of oil in the US continues to hover around record highs as producers show their reluctance to immediately cut given that it is no longer economically viable to produce at current prices. The price of oil has fallen precipitously in the past few weeks, moving well below the breakeven cost of most producers.  The only evidence of the impact of the virus on petroleum activity is the abrupt plunge in domestic production of gasoline, which fell to the lowest level since the start of January.  This abnormal shift follows an abrupt decline in the level of gasoline product supplied, the change of which has fallen below its seasonal average trend.  These metrics will continue to be important to follow as we attempt to gauge the impact of this virus on the consumer and the economy, overall, in the months ahead.  Subscribers can login to view the charts in the database at the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/u-s-eia-weekly-petroleum-status-report

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/Oil_Inventories_seasonal_chart.PNG

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/Gasoline_Inventories_seasonal_chart.PNG

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.95.

image

 

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

lululemon athletica inc. Seasonal Chart FactSet Research Systems Inc. Seasonal Chart Huazhu Group Limited Seasonal Chart SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION Seasonal Chart KB Home Seasonal Chart Progress Software Corporation Seasonal Chart Embraer S.A. Seasonal Chart Worthington Industries, Inc. Seasonal Chart Canadian Solar Inc. Seasonal Chart Bitauto Holdings Limited Seasonal Chart Oxford Industries, Inc. Seasonal Chart Signet Jewelers Limited Seasonal Chart Gamestop Corporation Seasonal Chart Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart Movado Group Inc. Seasonal Chart Titan Machinery Inc. Seasonal Chart LiqTech International, Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

image

image

 

 

TSE Composite

image

image

 

Sponsored By...
Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

Comments are closed.