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Stock Market Outlook for February 14, 2020


Now has historically been the best time of year to buy a used car.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE:YUM) Seasonal Chart

Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE:YUM) Seasonal Chart

Allete Inc. (NYSE:ALE) Seasonal Chart

Allete Inc. (NYSE:ALE) Seasonal Chart

Vicor Corp. (NASD:VICR) Seasonal Chart

Vicor Corp. (NASD:VICR) Seasonal Chart

Installed Building Products Inc. (NYSE:IBP) Seasonal Chart

Installed Building Products Inc. (NYSE:IBP) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF (NYSE:EFG) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF (NYSE:EFG) Seasonal Chart

WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE:HEDJ) Seasonal Chart

WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE:HEDJ) Seasonal Chart

CSX Corp. (NASD:CSX) Seasonal Chart

CSX Corp. (NASD:CSX) Seasonal Chart

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE:CHK) Seasonal Chart

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE:CHK) Seasonal Chart

TransAlta Corp. (TSE:TA.TO) Seasonal Chart

TransAlta Corp. (TSE:TA.TO) Seasonal Chart

Factset Research Sys, Inc. (NYSE:FDS) Seasonal Chart

Factset Research Sys, Inc. (NYSE:FDS) Seasonal Chart

AAON, Inc. (NASD:AAON) Seasonal Chart

AAON, Inc. (NASD:AAON) Seasonal Chart

Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (NYSE:MAA) Seasonal Chart

Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (NYSE:MAA) Seasonal Chart

Duke Realty Corp. (NYSE:DRE) Seasonal Chart

Duke Realty Corp. (NYSE:DRE) Seasonal Chart

Extra Space Storage Inc. (NYSE:EXR) Seasonal Chart

Extra Space Storage Inc. (NYSE:EXR) Seasonal Chart

NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:NRG) Seasonal Chart

NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:NRG) Seasonal Chart

BMO Equal Weight Utilities Index ETF  (TSE:ZUT.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO Equal Weight Utilities Index ETF (TSE:ZUT.TO) Seasonal Chart

Mine Safety Appliances Co. (NYSE:MSA) Seasonal Chart

Mine Safety Appliances Co. (NYSE:MSA) Seasonal Chart

America's Car-Mart, Inc. (NASD:CRMT) Seasonal Chart

America’s Car-Mart, Inc. (NASD:CRMT) Seasonal Chart

First Asset MSCI Europe Low Risk Weighted ETF (CAD Hedged) (TSE:RWE.TO) Seasonal Chart

First Asset MSCI Europe Low Risk Weighted ETF (CAD Hedged) (TSE:RWE.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO MSCI EAFE Hedged to CAD Index ETF (TSE:ZDM.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO MSCI EAFE Hedged to CAD Index ETF (TSE:ZDM.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO MSCI Europe High Quality Hedged to CAD Index ETF (TSE:ZEQ.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO MSCI Europe High Quality Hedged to CAD Index ETF (TSE:ZEQ.TO) Seasonal Chart

First Asset Morningstar International Momentum Index ETF (CAD Hedged) (TSE:ZXM.TO) Seasonal Chart

First Asset Morningstar International Momentum Index ETF (CAD Hedged) (TSE:ZXM.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Germany ETF (NASD:HEWG) Seasonal Chart

iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Germany ETF (NASD:HEWG) Seasonal Chart

iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Eurozone ETF (AMEX:HEZU) Seasonal Chart

iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Eurozone ETF (AMEX:HEZU) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P International Developed Low Volatility ETF (AMEX:IDLV) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P International Developed Low Volatility ETF (AMEX:IDLV) Seasonal Chart

iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (NYSE:IDU) Seasonal Chart

iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (NYSE:IDU) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks drifted lower on Thursday amidst a spike in the tally coronavirus cases following a change in the criteria to gauge the spread of the widely feared virus.  The S&P 500 Index fell by less than two-tenths of one percent, once again closing a gap that was opened just one session ago.  Momentum indicators on the hourly chart are starting to negatively diverge from price, suggesting short-term buying exhaustion.  The 20-hour moving average has been maintained as a level of support, however, the tape is starting to look top-heavy.

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On the economic front, the consumer price index (CPI) for January was released before Thursday’s opening bell.  The headline print indicated that the inflation gauge increased by 0.1%, which was short of the 0.2% increase expected by analysts.  Despite the miss, the year-over-year change still managed to inch higher to 2.5% from 2.3% previous.  Less food and energy, the year-over-year increase stands at 2.3%.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, the consumer price index actually increased by 0.4% last month, which is inline with the average change for January.  Less food and energy, the January change showed a similar 0.4% increase, which is a tenth of a percent above the average change for this time of year.  Both results follow one of the strongest calendar year increases in the past decade, suggesting that inflationary pressures are on the rise.  Subscribers can login and view the charts for this report via the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/u-s-consumer-price-index-cpi-producer-price-index-ppi

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/CPIAUCNS_seasonal_chart.PNG

One of the things we enjoy about the consumer price index is that it not only provides a gauge of the health of the economy and how the Fed might be expected to react when the results are compared to their own targets, but it also provides indication of when to buy the goods that we consume as part of our everyday lives.  We often speak of the supply and demand dynamics as it relates to investments, but the seasonal laws of supply and demand span to virtually everything that is bought and sold.  One such area is at a seasonal low, implying now is the best time to buy.  Seasonally, the price of used vehicles reach a low in January and February, then rise through the spring and summer as demand picks up.  Consumers looking to purchase a used car are best to do so during these winter months when prices are typically the lowest of the year.  According to the consumer price index for used cars and trucks, prices have fallen by 5.5% since the seasonal peak in August of last year, providing the opportunity to score a deal. Signup now to browse the other seasonal charts for consumer products to determine what time of the year is best to purchase the big ticket items that you are seeking.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/CUUR0000SETA02_seasonal_chart.PNG

Elsewhere on the economic front, initial jobless claims continue to show the second best pace of this economic recovery.  The headline print indicated that the initial claimant count was little changed last week, rising slightly by 2,000 to 205,000.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, initial claims actually fell by 5,687, or 2.5%, last week to 218,977.  The year-to-date change is lower by 29.9%, which is well below the 17.7% decline that is average by this point in the year.  The result continues to suggest a healthy labor market.  The first signs of stress would be picked up in this indicator.  Overall, the result bodes well for another solid payroll report of February, no doubt receiving a boost from census worker hiring.

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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Astrazeneca PLC Seasonal Chart Enbridge Inc Seasonal Chart PPL Corporation Seasonal Chart Yandex N.V. Seasonal Chart Newell Brands Inc. Seasonal Chart Canopy Growth Corporation Seasonal Chart Portland General Electric Company Seasonal Chart Essent Group Ltd. Seasonal Chart Air Lease Corporation Seasonal Chart Triton International Limited Seasonal Chart Sensient Technologies Corporation Seasonal Chart Arbor Realty Trust Seasonal Chart American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart ImmunoGen, Inc. Seasonal Chart Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S.A. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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