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Stock Market Outlook for February 13, 2020


Following a weak 2019, vehicle sales show a January change that is inline with historical norms.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Keyera Corp (TSE:KEY.TO) Seasonal Chart

Keyera Corp (TSE:KEY.TO) Seasonal Chart

Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. (NYSE:PBH) Seasonal Chart

Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. (NYSE:PBH) Seasonal Chart

Pearson PLC (NYSE:PSO) Seasonal Chart

Pearson PLC (NYSE:PSO) Seasonal Chart

Genpact Ltd. (NYSE:G) Seasonal Chart

Genpact Ltd. (NYSE:G) Seasonal Chart

iShares International Developed Real Estate ETF (NASD:IFGL) Seasonal Chart

iShares International Developed Real Estate ETF (NASD:IFGL) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI International Developed Momentum Factor ETF (AMEX:IMTM) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI International Developed Momentum Factor ETF (AMEX:IMTM) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks continued their relentless climb on Wednesday with many benchmarks charting further record highs.  The S&P 500 Index added just shy of two-thirds of one percent, led by, once again, pro-cyclical sectors of the market, including consumer discretionary, industrials, and energy.  The large-cap benchmark is now hovering well off of levels of support presented by 20 and 50-day moving averages; the appealing levels from which to buy following the end of January dip are long gone.

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To be released on Friday is the latest glimpse of the health of the consumer with the government’s report on retail sales for January.  Ahead of this report, the monthly tally of vehicle sales often provides a good gauge of what to expect. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has indicated that total vehicle sales in the US increased by 1.1% in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 17.3 million, remaining around the critical 17 million threshold that has gone unviolated for the past five years. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, Total Vehicle Sales actually fell by 25.3% last month, which is marginally weaker than the 24.3% decline that is average for January. This follows a weak year for the change in vehicle sales in 2019 when the level of sales fell by 6.5%, well below the 1.6% increase that has been average over the past 20 years.  We sent out further insight to subscribers on Wednesday, including the investment implications of how you can take advantage.  Signup now and we’ll send you our report.

Total Vehicle Sales Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.70.  Increasingly, we are seeing evidence of complacency show up in intraday readings of this sentiment gauge.  Wednesday saw a low of 0.46 at the start of the session, implying that more than twice as many calls had traded hands than puts.  When investors throw caution to the wind, whether rightly or wrongly, it makes the equity market vulnerable as portfolio protections are lacking.  Should a shock event be realized, investors would be more likely to sell a position outright than if hedges were in place.  Clearly, the risk-reward of the market at present levels is unfavourable, but this does not provide signal in itself that a decline is imminent.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Alibaba Group Holding Limited Seasonal Chart Pepsico, Inc. Seasonal Chart NVIDIA Corporation Seasonal Chart Linde plc Seasonal Chart Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. Seasonal Chart Duke Energy Corporation Seasonal Chart Zoetis Inc. Seasonal Chart Waste Management, Inc. Seasonal Chart TC Energy Corporation Seasonal Chart American International Group, Inc. Seasonal Chart Barclays PLC Seasonal Chart The Kraft Heinz Company Seasonal Chart Credit Suisse Group Seasonal Chart Republic Services, Inc. Seasonal Chart Digital Realty Trust, Inc. Seasonal Chart TELUS Corporation Seasonal Chart Coca-Cola European Partners plc Seasonal Chart DexCom, Inc. Seasonal Chart Fortis Inc. Seasonal Chart Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings Seasonal Chart Arista Networks, Inc. Seasonal Chart Incyte Corporation Seasonal Chart Expedia Group, Inc. Seasonal Chart Agnico Eagle Mines Limited Seasonal Chart Zebra Technologies Corporation Seasonal Chart Liberty Global plc Seasonal Chart Fidelity National Financial, Inc. Seasonal Chart GoDaddy Inc. Seasonal Chart West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. Seasonal Chart Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. Seasonal Chart Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Seasonal Chart NICE Ltd Seasonal Chart Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. Seasonal Chart WEX Inc. Seasonal Chart Iron Mountain Incorporated Seasonal Chart Mohawk Industries, Inc. Seasonal Chart Pool Corporation Seasonal Chart Ares Management Corporation Seasonal Chart Cognex Corporation Seasonal Chart Aegon NV Seasonal Chart Aercap Holdings N.V. Seasonal Chart IPG Photonics Corporation Seasonal Chart Mattel, Inc. Seasonal Chart Tempur Sealy International, Inc. Seasonal Chart Yamana Gold Inc. Seasonal Chart Treehouse Foods, Inc. Seasonal Chart Ryder System, Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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