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Stock Market Outlook for February 12, 2020


Last year saw the first decline in job openings since the last recession.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Thomson Reuters Corp. (TSE:TRI.TO) Seasonal Chart

Thomson Reuters Corp. (TSE:TRI.TO) Seasonal Chart

FMC Corp. (NYSE:FMC) Seasonal Chart

FMC Corp. (NYSE:FMC) Seasonal Chart

Tiffany and Co. (NYSE:TIF) Seasonal Chart

Tiffany and Co. (NYSE:TIF) Seasonal Chart

American Woodmark Corp. (NASD:AMWD) Seasonal Chart

American Woodmark Corp. (NASD:AMWD) Seasonal Chart

Insperity, Inc. (NYSE:NSP) Seasonal Chart

Insperity, Inc. (NYSE:NSP) Seasonal Chart

Tesla Inc. (NASD:TSLA) Seasonal Chart

Tesla Inc. (NASD:TSLA) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF (NASD:ACWX) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF (NASD:ACWX) Seasonal Chart

iShares Asia 50 ETF (NASD:AIA) Seasonal Chart

iShares Asia 50 ETF (NASD:AIA) Seasonal Chart

WisdomTree International Equity Fund (NYSE:DWM) Seasonal Chart

WisdomTree International Equity Fund (NYSE:DWM) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P International Dividend ETF (NYSE:DWX) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P International Dividend ETF (NYSE:DWX) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (NYSE:EFV) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (NYSE:EFV) Seasonal Chart

Renaissance International IPO ETF (AMEX:IPOS) Seasonal Chart

Renaissance International IPO ETF (AMEX:IPOS) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks continued to advance on Tuesday as beaten down cyclical areas of the market captured a bid.  The S&P 500 Index added just less than two-tenths of one percent, charting another record closing high.  This continues to be a “gappy” market; the jump of around 13 points on the large-cap benchmark at Tuesday’s open was filled in the afternoon session.  Investors are not letting the gaps go unfilled for very long, some even being filled the same day.  This suggests that investors are keeping the market on a short leash with stocks at all-time highs.  More typical of a market with value to be had, investors will let gaps go unfilled for prolonged periods of time as investors rather than traders dominate the tape.  Obviously, traders can be a fickle group, therefore beware the volatility.

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Capturing traders attention on Tuesday was the pro-cyclical sectors as investors let down their guard pertaining to the now named coronavirus.  Consumer discretionary, energy, and materials were among the sectors leading the market higher as Chinese equities rebound as economies start to open back up.  The Emerging Market ETF (EEM) added 1.31%, trading back above the 50-day moving average, a key breakdown point that was violated at the height of the coronavirus fears.  MACD appears poised to trigger a buy signal as the momentum indicator converges on its signal line.  The upward sloping 200-day moving average acted as support during the recent pullback, indicating that the longer-term trend remains positive.  Seasonally, emerging market stocks tend to outperform developed market equities between now and May.

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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:EEM) Seasonality

On the economic front, the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey was released during Tuesday’s session.  The December result confirmed that the change in job openings in 2019 was the weakest in a decade. The headline print of December’s report indicated that openings declined by 5.4% in the month to 6.423 million. Analysts were expecting a decline of 0.2% to 6.775 million. There were 5.753 million individuals that were declared unemployed in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggesting that there is still at least one opportunity available for everyone seeking a job. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, openings actually declined by 8.9% to 5.892 million, which is almost double average decline for the month of 4.6%. For 2019 overall, openings were down by 14.9%, which is the first calendar year decline since 2009 and well below the 5.4% increase that has been average over the past 20 years.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday.  Signup now to be included on our distribution list.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/JTUJOL_seasonal_chart.PNG

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the pit-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.72.

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Sectors and Industries entering their period of seasonal strength:

Crude Oil Futures (CL) Seasonal Chart
FUTURE_CL1 Relative to the S&P 500FUTURE_CL1 Relative to Gold

FUTURE_CL1 Monthly Averages

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Cisco Systems, Inc. Seasonal Chart CVS Health Corporation Seasonal Chart CME Group Inc. Seasonal Chart Global Payments Inc. Seasonal Chart Applied Materials, Inc. Seasonal Chart Shopify Inc. Seasonal Chart Equinix, Inc. Seasonal Chart Moody's Corporation Seasonal Chart Manulife Financial Corp Seasonal Chart Welltower Inc. Seasonal Chart Barrick Gold Corporation Seasonal Chart IQVIA Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart Sun Life Financial Inc. Seasonal Chart Waste Connections, Inc. Seasonal Chart Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Seasonal Chart Equifax, Inc. Seasonal Chart MGM Resorts International Seasonal Chart CenturyLink, Inc. Seasonal Chart SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc. Seasonal Chart Annaly Capital Management Inc Seasonal Chart Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited Seasonal Chart NetApp, Inc. Seasonal Chart Tyler Technologies, Inc. Seasonal Chart Molson Coors Beverage Company Seasonal Chart Cenovus Energy Inc Seasonal Chart Trimble Inc. Seasonal Chart Regency Centers Corporation Seasonal Chart Noble Energy Inc. Seasonal Chart James Hardie Industries plc. Seasonal Chart Marathon Oil Corporation Seasonal Chart CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (The) Seasonal Chart Ares Capital Corporation Seasonal Chart HubSpot, Inc. Seasonal Chart Bruker Corporation Seasonal Chart Bunge Limited Seasonal Chart Pegasystems Inc. Seasonal Chart Tallgrass Energy, LP Seasonal Chart Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Seasonal Chart Kinross Gold Corporation Seasonal Chart First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. Seasonal Chart CyberArk Software Ltd. Seasonal Chart Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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