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Stock Market Outlook for January 31, 2020


Short-term support at 3242 has become apparent, however, resistance at 3290 remains the hurdle to crack in order to resume the bullish intermediate-term trend.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Adobe Systems, Inc. (NASD:ADBE) Seasonal Chart

Adobe Systems, Inc. (NASD:ADBE) Seasonal Chart

Comerica, Inc. (NYSE:CMA) Seasonal Chart

Comerica, Inc. (NYSE:CMA) Seasonal Chart

Tyson Foods Inc Cl A (NYSE:TSN) Seasonal Chart

Tyson Foods Inc Cl A (NYSE:TSN) Seasonal Chart

Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) Seasonal Chart

Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) Seasonal Chart

Baytex Energy Corp. (TSE:BTE.TO) Seasonal Chart

Baytex Energy Corp. (TSE:BTE.TO) Seasonal Chart

1-800 FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (NASD:FLWS) Seasonal Chart

1-800 FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (NASD:FLWS) Seasonal Chart

Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TSE:TOU.TO) Seasonal Chart

Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TSE:TOU.TO) Seasonal Chart

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (NYSE:RTH) Seasonal Chart

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (NYSE:RTH) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed mildly higher on Thursday as investors shook off early morning jitters that had initially sent equity markets lower following the opening bell.  The S&P 500 Index added just over three-tenths of one percent, once again closing around the 20-day moving average.  The upper limit of the gap that was opened on Monday around 3290 remains in a position of resistance.  Short-term support has become apparent at 3242 and momentum indicators on the hourly look have positively diverged from price, hinting of waning selling pressures, which led to the rebound from Thursday’s lows.  The two limits effectively provide your levels to shoot against; a break above the upper limit warrants a renewed short-term bullish bias, while a break below the lower limit will keep the short-term bearish move intact.  Investors are inclined to square away portfolios around the end of the month, rotating from the month’s winners and into the losers to bring allocations back inline with investment mandates.  Start of month fund inflows carries the baton into the first few days of the new month.  This can cause deviations in the short-term trend until all of the positions are settled.  We’ll see over the next couple of days how strong the start of month inflows are and gauge the implications accordingly.

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Just Released…

After the closing bell we released our monthly report for February, providing subscribers with everything they need to know for the month ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

  • Equity market tendencies in the month of February
  • Why investors have ignored much of the negative data-points over the past year
  • Reason for hope that the manufacturing economy will rebound in the first half of the year
  • A simple binary gauge to determine when to "buy the dips" or "sell the rips"
  • The odd dynamic between the change in job openings and equity market performance
  • Comparison of the present sentiment of investors to similar periods in the past
  • Comments on the historical market impact from similar viral outbreaks to the coronavirus
  • The technical status of the S&P 500 Index
  • Sector reviews and ratings
  • Notable stocks and ETFs entering their period of strength in February

Signup now to be included on our distribution list and we’ll send you this insightful look at how to position in the market over the month(s) ahead.

On the economic front, the latest tally of weekly jobless claims was released before Thursday’s opening bell.   The headline print indicated that initial claims fell to 216,000 from 223,000 previous.  Analysts were expecting a print of 215,000.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, initial weekly claims showed a decline of 53,702 to 228,386.  So far in 2020, claims are down by 26.9% since the end of last year, which is better than the decline of 11.0% that is average through the first four weeks of the year.  Seasonally, the claimant count declines through the first five months of the year, attributed to the ramp up in economic activity into the spring.  Evidence of stress in the labour market would first appear in this gauge of unemployment activity.  As of present, the gauge suggests that the fundamentals in the labour market are solid, akin to growth in the broader economy.

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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Exxon Mobil Corporation Seasonal Chart Chevron Corporation Seasonal Chart Honeywell International Inc. Seasonal Chart Charter Communications, Inc. Seasonal Chart Caterpillar, Inc. Seasonal Chart Colgate-Palmolive Company Seasonal Chart Illinois Tool Works Inc. Seasonal Chart Aon plc Seasonal Chart Phillips 66 Seasonal Chart Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria S.A. Seasonal Chart Johnson Controls International plc Seasonal Chart LyondellBasell Industries NV Seasonal Chart KKR & Co. Inc. Seasonal Chart IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. Seasonal Chart Weyerhaeuser Company Seasonal Chart Imperial Oil Limited Seasonal Chart Church & Dwight Company, Inc. Seasonal Chart Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. Seasonal Chart Phillips 66 Partners LP Seasonal Chart Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation Seasonal Chart Gentex Corporation Seasonal Chart Berry Global Group, Inc. Seasonal Chart ManpowerGroup Seasonal Chart Provident Financial Services, Inc Seasonal Chart Southside Bancshares, Inc. Seasonal Chart Carolina Financial Corporation Seasonal Chart Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. Seasonal Chart Johnson Outdoors Inc. Seasonal Chart WisdomTree Investments, Inc. Seasonal Chart Twin Disc, Incorporated Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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