Contact | RSS Feed

Stock Market Outlook for January 22, 2020


Staples, Utilities, and REITS chart new all-time highs, while Materials and Energy chart multi-year relative lows.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

United States Gasoline Fund, LP (NYSE:UGA) Seasonal Chart

United States Gasoline Fund, LP (NYSE:UGA) Seasonal Chart

Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (NYSE:SWK) Seasonal Chart

Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (NYSE:SWK) Seasonal Chart

Ingersoll-Rand Plc (NYSE:IR) Seasonal Chart

Ingersoll-Rand Plc (NYSE:IR) Seasonal Chart

Archrock, Inc (NYSE:AROC) Seasonal Chart

Archrock, Inc (NYSE:AROC) Seasonal Chart

Lydall, Inc. (NYSE:LDL) Seasonal Chart

Lydall, Inc. (NYSE:LDL) Seasonal Chart

Popular, Inc. (NASD:BPOP) Seasonal Chart

Popular, Inc. (NASD:BPOP) Seasonal Chart

Five Below, Inc. (NASD:FIVE) Seasonal Chart

Five Below, Inc. (NASD:FIVE) Seasonal Chart

Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (NASD:GLPI) Seasonal Chart

Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (NASD:GLPI) Seasonal Chart

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (NASD:CTRE) Seasonal Chart

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (NASD:CTRE) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI BRIC ETF (NYSE:BKF) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI BRIC ETF (NYSE:BKF) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed mildly lower on Tuesday as fears pertaining to the spread of the coronavirus sent jitters through markets around the globe.  The S&P 500 Index shed around a quarter of one percent, led by materials, industrials, and energy.  The Materials and Energy sector ETFs (XLB & XLE) ended lower by 1.08% and 1.79%, respectively, each cracking breaking below levels of support presented by major moving average.  The relative performance of these two cyclical bets has been in decline for some time and the weakness on Tuesday charted new multi-year relative lows compared to the S&P 500 Index.  Buying demand has been absent and it is questionable whether buying demand will materialize in the near-term.  Seasonally, stocks in these sectors tend to find a low around the start of the year, then rise through to May, but a persistently weak fundamental backdrop through the end of 2019 has deterred investors from demanding sector constituents.  Seasonally, manufacturing activity tends to ramp up in the first half of the year, creating demand for materials, energy, and industrial products and the stock prices react accordingly.

image

image

Investors fleeing the risk of cyclical bets found refuge in the defensive sectors, resulting in gains for utilities, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and consumer staples.  The three sectors saw their respective ETFs advance to new all-time highs.  While atypical to see an outperforming trend in staples and utilities to start the year, for REITs, as reported recently, the strength is right inline with seasonal norms.  The iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF (XRE) tends to outperform the broader market through the end of March; the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (IYR) tends to outperform through to the start of April.  Both ETFs have seen their trends relative to the S&P 500 move above their respective 20-day moving averages, an indication of buying demand.  The strength in defensive sectors has negative implications for the broader market, if sustained, as it suggests risk aversion.

image

image

XRE.TO Relative to the S&P 500

On the manufacturing front, Statscan released its report on Canadian manufacturing sales for the month of November.  The headline print indicated that manufacturing sales fell by 0.6% in November, which is weaker than the 0.3% increase that was forecasted by analysts. The result places the year-over-year change at -0.1%. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, manufacturing sales in this country actually fell by 4.0% in November, which is much weaker than the 2.0% decline that is average for this time of year. The year-to-date change is now below the seasonal average trend by 1.5%, which is the weakest pace since 2015.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday.  Want a copy of our report?  Subscribe now and we’ll send it to you.

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.83.

image

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Johnson & Johnson Seasonal Chart Abbott Laboratories Seasonal Chart ASML Holding N.V. Seasonal Chart Texas Instruments Incorporated Seasonal Chart Prologis, Inc. Seasonal Chart Kinder Morgan, Inc. Seasonal Chart Amphenol Corporation Seasonal Chart Rogers Communication, Inc. Seasonal Chart Baker Hughes Company Seasonal Chart Northern Trust Corporation Seasonal Chart Fifth Third Bancorp Seasonal Chart Citrix Systems, Inc. Seasonal Chart Teledyne Technologies Incorporated Seasonal Chart Raymond James Financial, Inc. Seasonal Chart Teradyne, Inc. Seasonal Chart Ally Financial Inc. Seasonal Chart PTC Inc. Seasonal Chart Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Seasonal Chart SL Green Realty Corp Seasonal Chart Steel Dynamics, Inc. Seasonal Chart BOK Financial Corporation Seasonal Chart Sterling Bancorp Seasonal Chart RLI Corp. Seasonal Chart Umpqua Holdings Corporation Seasonal Chart SLM Corporation Seasonal Chart Community Bank System, Inc. Seasonal Chart BancorpSouth Bank Seasonal Chart Cohen & Steers Inc Seasonal Chart CVB Financial Corporation Seasonal Chart Cathay General Bancorp Seasonal Chart Novagold Resources Inc. Seasonal Chart Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. Seasonal Chart H. B. Fuller Company Seasonal Chart Plexus Corp. Seasonal Chart Hope Bancorp, Inc. Seasonal Chart Boston Private Financial Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart Preferred Bank Seasonal Chart Univest Financial Corporation Seasonal Chart Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. Seasonal Chart Customers Bancorp, Inc Seasonal Chart QCR Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart Franklin Financial Network, Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

image

image

 

 

TSE Composite

image

image

 

Sponsored By...
Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

Comments are closed.