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Stock Market Outlook for December 23, 2019


Canada Retail Trade actually increased by 2.6% (NSA) in October, which is much stronger than the 0.5% increase that is average for the month.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (TSE:FVI.TO) Seasonal Chart

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (TSE:FVI.TO) Seasonal Chart

Supremex Inc. (TSE:SXP.TO) Seasonal Chart

Supremex Inc. (TSE:SXP.TO) Seasonal Chart

Central Fund of Canada Limited  (AMEX:CEF) Seasonal Chart

Central Fund of Canada Limited (AMEX:CEF) Seasonal Chart

Avalon Advanced Materials, Inc. (TSE:AVL.TO) Seasonal Chart

Avalon Advanced Materials, Inc. (TSE:AVL.TO) Seasonal Chart

Pentair, Inc. (NYSE:PNR) Seasonal Chart

Pentair, Inc. (NYSE:PNR) Seasonal Chart

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASD:TTWO) Seasonal Chart

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASD:TTWO) Seasonal Chart

Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. (NYSE:CHT) Seasonal Chart

Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. (NYSE:CHT) Seasonal Chart

MCAP, Inc. (TSE:MKP.TO) Seasonal Chart

MCAP, Inc. (TSE:MKP.TO) Seasonal Chart

Caledonia Mining Corp. (TSE:CAL.TO) Seasonal Chart

Caledonia Mining Corp. (TSE:CAL.TO) Seasonal Chart

Corby Spirit and Wine Limited (TSE:CSW/B.TO) Seasonal Chart

Corby Spirit and Wine Limited (TSE:CSW/B.TO) Seasonal Chart

Mag Silver Corp. (TSE:MAG.TO) Seasonal Chart

Mag Silver Corp. (TSE:MAG.TO) Seasonal Chart

BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE:BHP) Seasonal Chart

BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE:BHP) Seasonal Chart

Silgan Holdings, Inc. (NASD:SLGN) Seasonal Chart

Silgan Holdings, Inc. (NASD:SLGN) Seasonal Chart

Canaccord Financial Inc. (TSE:CF.TO) Seasonal Chart

Canaccord Financial Inc. (TSE:CF.TO) Seasonal Chart

Granite Oil Corp. (TSE:GXO.TO) Seasonal Chart

Granite Oil Corp. (TSE:GXO.TO) Seasonal Chart

Teck Resources Ltd. (NYSE:TECK) Seasonal Chart

Teck Resources Ltd. (NYSE:TECK) Seasonal Chart

Geodrill Ltd. (TSE:GEO.TO) Seasonal Chart

Geodrill Ltd. (TSE:GEO.TO) Seasonal Chart

H&R Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:HR/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

H&R Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:HR/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

CGI Group, Inc. (TSE:GIB/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

CGI Group, Inc. (TSE:GIB/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (NYSE:BRK/B) Seasonal Chart

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (NYSE:BRK/B) Seasonal Chart

Graphic Packaging Holding Co. (NYSE:GPK) Seasonal Chart

Graphic Packaging Holding Co. (NYSE:GPK) Seasonal Chart

Tupperware Brands Corp. (NYSE:TUP) Seasonal Chart

Tupperware Brands Corp. (NYSE:TUP) Seasonal Chart

DATA Communications Management Corp (TSE:DCM.TO) Seasonal Chart

DATA Communications Management Corp (TSE:DCM.TO) Seasonal Chart

Martinrea Intl Inc. (TSE:MRE.TO) Seasonal Chart

Martinrea Intl Inc. (TSE:MRE.TO) Seasonal Chart

New Gold Inc. (TSE:NGD.TO) Seasonal Chart

New Gold Inc. (TSE:NGD.TO) Seasonal Chart

Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund (TSE:BPF/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund (TSE:BPF/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Brookfield Asset Management, Inc. (TSE:BAM/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Brookfield Asset Management, Inc. (TSE:BAM/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Pacific Railway (TSE:CP.TO) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Pacific Railway (TSE:CP.TO) Seasonal Chart

Newtek Capital, Inc. (NASD:NEWT) Seasonal Chart

Newtek Capital, Inc. (NASD:NEWT) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks moved further into all-time record high territory on Friday in what is looking like another FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) trade as investors that had maintained a bearish bias through 2019 are forced to cover.  The S&P 500 Index added half of one percent to close at 3221.  This is the 32nd record close of 2019, which is around the six year average for number of record closes in a year.  The benchmark continues to move into overbought territory, but this is not deterring investors from committing capital now that a number of uncertainties overhanging the market have been alleviated.

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For the week, the large-cap benchmark was higher by 1.65%, advancing beyond the upper limit of a rising trend channel that we have been highlighting for the past couple of months.  With the announcement of the Phase 1 trade deal, market participants appear to have found the catalyst they require to set the market on an alternate trajectory.  The benchmark, according to this weekly look, is currently the most overbought since the start of 2018 following the parabolic rise in stocks related to the passage of the Trump tax cuts.  Momentum indicators continue to point higher, showing no signs of exhaustion that would hint of an imminent rollover.  Major moving averages are trending higher, suggesting positive trends across multiple timeframes.

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There is a critical test ahead for the US Dollar Index as the currency benchmark bounces back to test broken support around its 200-day moving average.  The rollover in the US Dollar has been a major component of the thesis calling for strength in stocks and commodities through the final month of the year.  The currency benchmark has been known to surprise, however.  Seasonally, the US Dollar tends to weaken in the last month of the year, supporting risk-assets across the board.  Confirmation of a lower significant higher below the September peak increased the prospect of seasonal norms becoming fulfilled.  The US Dollar Index closed higher by over half of a percent for the week, clawing back much of the loss realized in the previous week.  A convergence of moving averages around 97.50 presents a logical hurdle that will either make or break the rollover in the currency.

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http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/futures/FUTURE_DX1.PNG

On the economic front, a report on retail sales in Canada had investors questioning the strength of the consumer in this country.  Statscan reported that retail trade in Canada fell by 1.2% in October, which is nowhere near the 0.5% increase that was expected by analysts. The result places the year-over-year change in negative territory at -0.6%. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, Canada Retail Trade actually increased by 2.6% in October, which is much stronger than the 0.5% increase that is average for the month. The year-to-date change is now trending 7.9% above the seasonal average, which is the best calendar year performance on record.  We sent out further insight to subscribers, including a rant of why the seasonally adjusted results from economic reports are not to be relied upon.  Signup now and we’ll send you our report providing the true story of retail activity in Canada.

Retail trade Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.79.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

  • No significant earnings scheduled for today.

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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