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Stock Market Outlook for December 11, 2019


CRB Commodity Index moving above trendline resistance as the US Dollar rolls over, seasonally typical for the last month of the year.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Hudson Technologies, Inc. (NASD:HDSN) Seasonal Chart

Hudson Technologies, Inc. (NASD:HDSN) Seasonal Chart

Guardian Capital Group Ltd. (TSE:GCG/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Guardian Capital Group Ltd. (TSE:GCG/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Canarc Resource Corp. (TSE:CCM.TO) Seasonal Chart

Canarc Resource Corp. (TSE:CCM.TO) Seasonal Chart

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSE:TD.TO) Seasonal Chart

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSE:TD.TO) Seasonal Chart

Granite Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:GRT/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Granite Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:GRT/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Knoll Inc. (NYSE:KNL) Seasonal Chart

Knoll Inc. (NYSE:KNL) Seasonal Chart

Mullen Group Ltd. (TSE:MTL.TO) Seasonal Chart

Mullen Group Ltd. (TSE:MTL.TO) Seasonal Chart

IBI Group Inc. (TSE:IBG.TO) Seasonal Chart

IBI Group Inc. (TSE:IBG.TO) Seasonal Chart

FLYHT Aerospace Solutions Ltd. (TSXV:FLY.V) Seasonal Chart

FLYHT Aerospace Solutions Ltd. (TSXV:FLY.V) Seasonal Chart

Nighthawk Gold Corp. (TSE:NHK.TO) Seasonal Chart

Nighthawk Gold Corp. (TSE:NHK.TO) Seasonal Chart

Theratechnologies, Inc. (TSE:TH.TO) Seasonal Chart

Theratechnologies, Inc. (TSE:TH.TO) Seasonal Chart

Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CPS) Seasonal Chart

Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CPS) Seasonal Chart

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (TSE:ASM.TO) Seasonal Chart

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (TSE:ASM.TO) Seasonal Chart

Estee Lauder Cos. (NYSE:EL) Seasonal Chart

Estee Lauder Cos. (NYSE:EL) Seasonal Chart

Noble Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NBL) Seasonal Chart

Noble Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NBL) Seasonal Chart

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. (NASD:USAP) Seasonal Chart

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. (NASD:USAP) Seasonal Chart

Rockwell Medical Technologies, Inc. (NASD:RMTI) Seasonal Chart

Rockwell Medical Technologies, Inc. (NASD:RMTI) Seasonal Chart

Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. (NASD:SGMO) Seasonal Chart

Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. (NASD:SGMO) Seasonal Chart

Wesco Aircraft Holdings Inc. (NYSE:WAIR) Seasonal Chart

Wesco Aircraft Holdings Inc. (NYSE:WAIR) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks slipped for a second day as investors position themselves accordingly for the December 15th tariff deadline.  The S&P 500 Index fell by just over a tenth of one percent, remaining supported at the 20-day moving average.  We have cited in the past the tendency for the market to cling to major moving averages going into an uncertain event.  The fact that investors feel comfortable at the short-term term 20-day moving average as opposed to longer-term hurdles at the 50 or 100 day shows the optimism of investors, suggesting that investors expect this week to be merely a short-term speed-bump on the path to further all-time highs.  Any impact to investor optimism as we near the tariff deadline could still see a test of levels below, however.

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Encouraging for the continuation of strength in risk assets is the recent roll-over in the US Dollar Index, which has confirmed a lower high below the early October peak.  The currency benchmark is back testing long-term support at the 200-day moving average, a level that will be highly scrutinized in the coming days.  A definitive break below this level of long-term support would provide a positive catalyst for stocks and commodities.  Seasonally, the US Dollar Index tends to decline in the last month of the year giving lift to equity and commodity positions through the Santa Claus rally period in the back half of the month.

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US Dollar Index Futures (DX) Seasonal Chart

Looking at the CRB commodity index, the commodity benchmark has been poking its head above long-term declining trendline resistance for the past few weeks and momentum indicators have positively diverged from price since the year began.  The bullish characteristics that momentum indicators are showing suggest a definitive breakout above levels of resistance is increasingly probable.  Commodities, in general, tend to outperform stocks between now and the end of February, benefitting from the ramp up in demand going into the prime manufacturing season in the spring.

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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.98.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

lululemon athletica inc. Seasonal Chart Nordson Corporation Seasonal Chart American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. Seasonal Chart Oxford Industries, Inc. Seasonal Chart Children's Place, Inc. (The) Seasonal Chart Photronics, Inc. Seasonal Chart Quanex Building Products Corporation Seasonal Chart Blue Bird Corporation Seasonal Chart United Natural Foods, Inc. Seasonal Chart Vera Bradley, Inc. Seasonal Chart Tailored Brands, Inc. Seasonal Chart DLH Holdings Corp. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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