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Stock Market Outlook for November 20, 2019


US housing starts declined by 0.3% in October, which is stronger than the 0.7% decline that is average for the month.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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McDermott Intl, Inc. (NYSE:MDR) Seasonal Chart

McDermott Intl, Inc. (NYSE:MDR) Seasonal Chart

Continental Gold Ltd. (TSE:CNL.TO) Seasonal Chart

Continental Gold Ltd. (TSE:CNL.TO) Seasonal Chart

Teck Resources Ltd. (TSE:TECK/B.TO) Seasonal Chart

Teck Resources Ltd. (TSE:TECK/B.TO) Seasonal Chart

National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) Seasonal Chart

National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) Seasonal Chart

Major Drilling Group Intl, Inc. (TSE:MDI.TO) Seasonal Chart

Major Drilling Group Intl, Inc. (TSE:MDI.TO) Seasonal Chart

United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE:URI) Seasonal Chart

United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE:URI) Seasonal Chart

Taseko Mines Ltd. (TSE:TKO.TO) Seasonal Chart

Taseko Mines Ltd. (TSE:TKO.TO) Seasonal Chart

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (TSE:FM.TO) Seasonal Chart

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (TSE:FM.TO) Seasonal Chart

Arconic, Inc. (NYSE:ARNC) Seasonal Chart

Arconic, Inc. (NYSE:ARNC) Seasonal Chart

Moody's Corp. (NYSE:MCO) Seasonal Chart

Moody’s Corp. (NYSE:MCO) Seasonal Chart

Esco Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:ESE) Seasonal Chart

Esco Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:ESE) Seasonal Chart

Olympic Steel, Inc. (NASD:ZEUS) Seasonal Chart

Olympic Steel, Inc. (NASD:ZEUS) Seasonal Chart

Wyndham Destinations, Inc. (NYSE:WYND) Seasonal Chart

Wyndham Destinations, Inc. (NYSE:WYND) Seasonal Chart

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASD:AMD) Seasonal Chart

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASD:AMD) Seasonal Chart

Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX.TO) Seasonal Chart

Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX.TO) Seasonal Chart

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASD:STLD) Seasonal Chart

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASD:STLD) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday as weakness in the energy and discretionary sectors dragged on broad market benchmarks.  The S&P 500 Index shed a mere six basis points, effectively giving back the gain recorded in the prior session.  The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) shed 1.10%, turning lower from declining trendline resistance around $124.  The sector has sharply underperformed the market over the past month, giving back all of this year’s outperformance that had been achieved by the middle of the year.  Strength in the consumer had made this a must hold sector, in part the result of the low cost of borrowing that provided a tailwind to spending.  But as the cost of borrowing started to rebound, investor desire to hold sector constituents waned.  Seasonally, the sector typically performs well in the period leading up to the end of year shopping season.

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http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/DISCRETIONARY.PNG

On the economic front, a report on housing starts in the US was released before the opening bell.  The headline print of October’s report indicated that activity increased by 3.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.314 million. Analysts were expecting an increase of 4.3% to a rate of 1.32 million. Stripping out the adjustments, starts actually declined by 0.3% in October, which is stronger than the 0.7% decline that is average for this time of year. The result places the year-to-date change 18.9% above the seasonal average trend, which remains the best pace since 2012.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday.  Not on the distribution list yet?  Signup now by choosing either a monthly or yearly subscription option via the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/subscribe

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/HOUSTNSA_seasonal_chart.PNG

Also released on Tuesday was a special report to subscribers detailing the seasonal tendencies of the broad equity market over the next couple of weeks.  Subscribe now and we’ll send it to you.

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.08.  Following a number of weeks with the sentiment gauge leaning in complacent territory, Tuesday’s bearish read is a welcome result, suggesting that investors may be buying portfolio insurance around the all-time highs in US equity benchmarks.  Complacency can make stocks vulnerable, particularly if a shock event forces an abrupt unwind of the consensus bullish bet.

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Sectors and Industries entering their period of seasonal strength:

Metals & Mining Industry Seasonal Chart
S5METL Index Relative to the S&P 500S5METL Index Relative to the Sector

S5METL Index Monthly Averages

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Lowe's Companies, Inc. Seasonal Chart Target Corporation Seasonal Chart NetEase, Inc. Seasonal Chart Copart, Inc. Seasonal Chart Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. Seasonal Chart L Brands, Inc. Seasonal Chart Nuance Communications, Inc. Seasonal Chart Spire Inc. Seasonal Chart Cubic Corporation Seasonal Chart Jack In The Box Inc. Seasonal Chart La-Z-Boy Incorporated Seasonal Chart Fanhua Inc. Seasonal Chart QIWI plc Seasonal Chart Star Bulk Carriers Corp. Seasonal Chart Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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