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Stock Market Outlook for November 19, 2019


While broad market gauges chart new record highs, the lack of breadth expansion could raise concerns.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Titan Intl, Inc. (NYSE:TWI) Seasonal Chart

Titan Intl, Inc. (NYSE:TWI) Seasonal Chart

Nevada Copper Corp. (TSE:NCU.TO) Seasonal Chart

Nevada Copper Corp. (TSE:NCU.TO) Seasonal Chart

Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:HOV) Seasonal Chart

Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:HOV) Seasonal Chart

21st Century Fox Inc. (NASD:FOXA) Seasonal Chart

21st Century Fox Inc. (NASD:FOXA) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Solar Inc. (NASD:CSIQ) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Solar Inc. (NASD:CSIQ) Seasonal Chart

Ross Stores, Inc. (NASD:ROST) Seasonal Chart

Ross Stores, Inc. (NASD:ROST) Seasonal Chart

Domino's Pizza Group LTD (NYSE:DPZ) Seasonal Chart

Domino’s Pizza Group LTD (NYSE:DPZ) Seasonal Chart

Gray Television, Inc. (NYSE:GTN) Seasonal Chart

Gray Television, Inc. (NYSE:GTN) Seasonal Chart

Agilysys Inc. (NASD:AGYS) Seasonal Chart

Agilysys Inc. (NASD:AGYS) Seasonal Chart

Harmonic, Inc. (NASD:HLIT) Seasonal Chart

Harmonic, Inc. (NASD:HLIT) Seasonal Chart

Dana Inc. (NYSE:DAN) Seasonal Chart

Dana Inc. (NYSE:DAN) Seasonal Chart

American Axle & Manufac. (NYSE:AXL) Seasonal Chart

American Axle & Manufac. (NYSE:AXL) Seasonal Chart

Highwoods Properties, Inc. (NYSE:HIW) Seasonal Chart

Highwoods Properties, Inc. (NYSE:HIW) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks traded in a narrow range in the first session of the trading week, closing essentially flat on the day.  The S&P 500 Index added a mere five basis points, achieving a new record closing high, albeit just marginally.  Momentum indicators on the large-cap benchmark continue to push further into overbought territory as the investor remain unrelenting in adding to equity positions now that key benchmarks have broken above summer trading ranges.  The S&P 500 Index remains the most overbought, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), since January of 2018.  At the same time, however, MACD on the daily chart is converging with its signal line, hinting that a bearish crossover may be imminent.  MACD and RSI continue to show a trend of higher-highs and higher-lows since the low charted in August, defeating the negative divergences that had been apparent through the middle of the year.  Seasonally, the next couple of weeks are traditionally strong for broad market equities.  We’ll provide further analysis in our intraday distribution that will be released in the day ahead.

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One concern pertaining to the stock market advance to new all-time highs is the lack of breadth expansion.  The percent of stocks in the S&P 500 Index trading above 200-day moving averages remains within its summer range between 50% and 77%.  As well, the percent of stocks trading above 50-day moving averages appears to be in decline, charting lower highs since the peak set in March of this year.  This can mean nothing or it can mean everything.  Typically, it is desired to see the advance in broad market gauges accompanied by a wide participation as it indicates broad buying demand.  However, a positive trend on an aggregate market gauge can continue if it is just one stock performing well or many.  A similar decline in the percent of stocks trading above 50-day moving averages was seen in 2016 and 2017 coming out of another prolonged trading range.  The market continued to grind higher until the start of 2018, leading to the recent prolonged trading range.  As long as these breadth indicators continue to show that at least two-thirds of stocks are holding above major moving averages, a bullish trend is assumed.

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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Home Depot, Inc. (The) Seasonal Chart Medtronic plc Seasonal Chart TJX Companies, Inc. (The) Seasonal Chart Transdigm Group Incorporated Seasonal Chart Aramark Seasonal Chart Kohl's Corporation Seasonal Chart 58.com Inc. Seasonal Chart Maximus, Inc. Seasonal Chart NewJersey Resources Corporation Seasonal Chart Urban Outfitters, Inc. Seasonal Chart ESCO Technologies Inc. Seasonal Chart JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited Seasonal Chart China Distance Education Holdings Limited Seasonal Chart Redhill Biopharma Ltd. Seasonal Chart Affimed N.V. Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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