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Stock Market Outlook for November 12, 2019


Volatility Index back to significant support at 12.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Spectrum Brands Inc. (NYSE:SPB) Seasonal Chart

Spectrum Brands Inc. (NYSE:SPB) Seasonal Chart

Frontier Communications Corp. (NASD:FTR) Seasonal Chart

Frontier Communications Corp. (NASD:FTR) Seasonal Chart

Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE:WY) Seasonal Chart

Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE:WY) Seasonal Chart

Xerox Corp. (NYSE:XRX) Seasonal Chart

Xerox Corp. (NYSE:XRX) Seasonal Chart

Two Harbors Investment Corp. (NYSE:TWO) Seasonal Chart

Two Harbors Investment Corp. (NYSE:TWO) Seasonal Chart

Ag Growth International Inc. (TSE:AFN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Ag Growth International Inc. (TSE:AFN.TO) Seasonal Chart

NextGen Healthcare, Inc. (NASD:NXGN) Seasonal Chart

NextGen Healthcare, Inc. (NASD:NXGN) Seasonal Chart

Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASD:ERIC) Seasonal Chart

Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASD:ERIC) Seasonal Chart

Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (NYSE:OPY) Seasonal Chart

Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (NYSE:OPY) Seasonal Chart

Packaging Corp Of America (NYSE:PKG) Seasonal Chart

Packaging Corp Of America (NYSE:PKG) Seasonal Chart

Starwood Property Trust Inc. (NYSE:STWD) Seasonal Chart

Starwood Property Trust Inc. (NYSE:STWD) Seasonal Chart

Altius Minerals Corp. (TSE:ALS.TO) Seasonal Chart

Altius Minerals Corp. (TSE:ALS.TO) Seasonal Chart

Macatawa Bank Corp. (NASD:MCBC) Seasonal Chart

Macatawa Bank Corp. (NASD:MCBC) Seasonal Chart

Avery Dennison Corp. (NYSE:AVY) Seasonal Chart

Avery Dennison Corp. (NYSE:AVY) Seasonal Chart

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg (NYSE:TSM) Seasonal Chart

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg (NYSE:TSM) Seasonal Chart

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NASD:GT) Seasonal Chart

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NASD:GT) Seasonal Chart

Dillards Inc (NYSE:DDS) Seasonal Chart

Dillards Inc (NYSE:DDS) Seasonal Chart

Helmerich & Payne Inc. (NYSE:HP) Seasonal Chart

Helmerich & Payne Inc. (NYSE:HP) Seasonal Chart

Louisiana Pacific Corp. (NYSE:LPX) Seasonal Chart

Louisiana Pacific Corp. (NYSE:LPX) Seasonal Chart

Corning, Inc. (NYSE:GLW) Seasonal Chart

Corning, Inc. (NYSE:GLW) Seasonal Chart

Cummins Inc. (NYSE:CMI) Seasonal Chart

Cummins Inc. (NYSE:CMI) Seasonal Chart

T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASD:TMUS) Seasonal Chart

T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASD:TMUS) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks danced around the flatline on Friday, eventually ending the day at a fresh all-time closing high as optimism pertaining to trade keeps a bid under the equity market.  The S&P 500 Index added just over a quarter of one percent, fuelled by health care and technology stocks.  Major moving averages on the daily look for the large-cap benchmark continue to point higher, providing a positive bias over the short, intermediate, and long-term perspective.

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On the weekly look, the S&P 500 added 0.85% in the first full week of November.  The benchmark is quickly making progress in moving towards the upper limit of the rising trend channel that has been in place for the past few months.  The upper hurdle comes in around 3150, or a mere 1.8% above present levels.  Momentum indicators are pointing higher and showing characteristics of a bullish trend, pretty much the exact opposite of how they looked this time last year.

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Along with the move higher in stocks in recent days and weeks, complacency has followed suit.  The put-call ratio fell to the lowest level since January 23rd, 2018 and the defensive trade has been largely abandoned, as seen by the downfall in bond, gold, and defensive equity sector prices.  This has caused the volatility index to close at one of the lowest levels of the past year around support at 12.  Despite signs of complacency, market benchmarks don’t necessarily have the look of complacency, which would typically follow a prolonged period of gains.  The market has been range bound for an extended period of time and while the breakout does warrant a shift to a bullish bias, to see the level of complacency emerge this fast following the breakout seems peculiar.  Past indications of complacency have been observed around the market peak in January of 2018 and, prior to that, in 2015, just before the rollover in stocks in the month of August.  Healthy trends are typically accompanied by a certain degree of scepticism, which inevitably keeps a marginal buyer in play.  The risk is that the market exhausts itself before the trend has ultimately matured.

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On the economic front, Statscan released labour market data for the month of October. The headline print indicated that employment declined by 1,800 last month, which is much weaker than the 10,000 increase that was expected by analysts. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5%, which was a tenth of a percent below estimates of 5.6%. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, employment actually declined by 10,000, or 0.05%, which is marginally weaker than the 0.1% increase that is average for this time of year. The year-to-date change remains above the seasonal average trend, now by three-tenths of one percent, which is the strongest pace since 2007.  The Canadian Dollar dipped following the report’s release.  Subscribers received further insight on what is driving employment in Canada, as well as the expected path of the domestic currency moving forward.  Subscribe now.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/v2064890_seasonal_chart.PNG

Also released to subscribers on Friday was our report on auto sales for the month of October, providing an early read of the strength of the consumer in the fourth quarter.  Signup now and we’ll send you this insight, including the investment implications through the end of the year.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.94.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Liberty Broadband Corporation Seasonal Chart Franco-Nevada Corporation Seasonal Chart UGI Corporation Seasonal Chart Liberty Media Corporation Seasonal Chart DXC Technology Company Seasonal Chart Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. Seasonal Chart Qurate Retail, Inc. Seasonal Chart ICU Medical, Inc. Seasonal Chart FibroGen, Inc Seasonal Chart Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. Seasonal Chart Noah Holdings Ltd. Seasonal Chart Kemet Corporation Seasonal Chart Ferro Corporation Seasonal Chart Hudbay Minerals Inc. Seasonal Chart Tidewater Inc. Seasonal Chart Linde plc Seasonal Chart Tyson Foods, Inc. Seasonal Chart Rockwell Automation, Inc. Seasonal Chart D.R. Horton, Inc. Seasonal Chart Skyworks Solutions, Inc. Seasonal Chart CBS Corporation Seasonal Chart Advance Auto Parts Inc Seasonal Chart Huazhu Group Limited Seasonal Chart Amdocs Limited Seasonal Chart Sage Therapeutics, Inc. Seasonal Chart AECOM Seasonal Chart YY Inc. Seasonal Chart TerraForm Power, Inc. Seasonal Chart II-VI Incorporated Seasonal Chart Embraer S.A. Seasonal Chart Quaker Chemical Corporation Seasonal Chart Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. Seasonal Chart Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. Seasonal Chart Energizer Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart 2U, Inc. Seasonal Chart Ebix, Inc. Seasonal Chart Canadian Solar Inc. Seasonal Chart MAG Silver Corporation Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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