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Stock Market Outlook for October 15, 2019


Treasury ETFs showing a lower-high, concluding a trend of higher-highs and higher-lows that has been intact since last November.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Grifols, SA (NASD:GRFS) Seasonal Chart

Grifols, SA (NASD:GRFS) Seasonal Chart

Nordson Corp. (NASD:NDSN) Seasonal Chart

Nordson Corp. (NASD:NDSN) Seasonal Chart

Caesars Entertainment Corp. (NASD:CZR) Seasonal Chart

Caesars Entertainment Corp. (NASD:CZR) Seasonal Chart

Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:EGBN) Seasonal Chart

Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:EGBN) Seasonal Chart

AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (NYSE:AMN) Seasonal Chart

AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (NYSE:AMN) Seasonal Chart

CBS Corp. (NYSE:CBS) Seasonal Chart

CBS Corp. (NYSE:CBS) Seasonal Chart

Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (NASD:HA) Seasonal Chart

Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (NASD:HA) Seasonal Chart

Domtar Corp. (NYSE:UFS) Seasonal Chart

Domtar Corp. (NYSE:UFS) Seasonal Chart

T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (NASD:TROW) Seasonal Chart

T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (NASD:TROW) Seasonal Chart

Signature Bank (NASD:SBNY) Seasonal Chart

Signature Bank (NASD:SBNY) Seasonal Chart

Ball Corp. (NYSE:BLL) Seasonal Chart

Ball Corp. (NYSE:BLL) Seasonal Chart

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NCLH) Seasonal Chart

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NCLH) Seasonal Chart

Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:A) Seasonal Chart

Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:A) Seasonal Chart

Snap On Inc. Holding Co. (NYSE:SNA) Seasonal Chart

Snap On Inc. Holding Co. (NYSE:SNA) Seasonal Chart

Advanced Semiconductor (NYSE:ASX) Seasonal Chart

Advanced Semiconductor (NYSE:ASX) Seasonal Chart

Biogen Inc. (NASD:BIIB) Seasonal Chart

Biogen Inc. (NASD:BIIB) Seasonal Chart

Owens Illinois, Inc. (NYSE:OI) Seasonal Chart

Owens Illinois, Inc. (NYSE:OI) Seasonal Chart

Werner Enterprises, Inc. (NASD:WERN) Seasonal Chart

Werner Enterprises, Inc. (NASD:WERN) Seasonal Chart

Cheesecake Factory Inc. (NASD:CAKE) Seasonal Chart

Cheesecake Factory Inc. (NASD:CAKE) Seasonal Chart

PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) Seasonal Chart

PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) Seasonal Chart

Illumina, Inc. (NASD:ILMN) Seasonal Chart

Illumina, Inc. (NASD:ILMN) Seasonal Chart

Metlife, Inc. (NYSE:MET) Seasonal Chart

Metlife, Inc. (NYSE:MET) Seasonal Chart

Sherwin Williams Co. (NYSE:SHW) Seasonal Chart

Sherwin Williams Co. (NYSE:SHW) Seasonal Chart

 

 

 

The Markets

Stocks surged on Friday as news crossed the tape that progress on trade negotiations was being made.  The S&P 500 Index jumped higher by 1.09%, moving above declining trendline resistance that has been highlighted in recent sessions.  A short-term trend of higher-highs and higher-lows has been confirmed, suggesting a shift in trajectory from negative to positive.

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For the week, the S&P 500 Index was higher by around two-thirds of one percent, holding support on a weekly closing basis around the 20-week moving average.  An intermediate rising trend channel shows its limits approximately between 2860 and 3100, although negative momentum divergences that have been apparent over the past few month does raise questions as to the health of this intermediate path.

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The session was overwhelmingly risk-on on Friday.  Cyclicals sectors topped the leaderboard, while defensives, including staples, utilities, and REITs, closed in the red.  Bond prices also closed lower with many treasury funds suggesting a lower-high and the conclusion to the trend of higher-highs and higher-lows that has benefitted the fixed income market since last November.  Once again, the defensive bet is attempting to unwind, presenting a possible catalyst for the cyclical trade to excel.  Cyclicals tend to find their footing in the month of October, trading higher through the spring of next year.  The activity in recent days is encouraging for this average tendency ahead.

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On the economic front, Statscan released labour market statistics before Friday’s opening bell.  The headline print of September’s report indicates that employment increased by 53,700 last month, which is much higher than the 5,000 increase that was expected by analysts. The unemployment rate ticked lower by two-tenths to 5.5%, just a tenth of a percent above the May record low of 5.4%. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, employment actually declined by 69,100, or 0.4%, which is much stronger than the 1.1% decline that is average for this time of year. The year-to-date change is now back above the seasonal average trend by half of one percent, which is the strongest pace since 2002.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday, including comments on the Canadian Dollar, which surged following the result.  Subscribe now and we’ll send you our report.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/v2064890_seasonal_chart.PNG

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.95.

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

J P Morgan Chase & Co Seasonal Chart Johnson & Johnson Seasonal Chart Wells Fargo & Company Seasonal Chart UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Seasonal Chart BlackRock, Inc. Seasonal Chart Prologis, Inc. Seasonal Chart United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Seasonal Chart Wipro Limited Seasonal Chart Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Seasonal Chart FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Seasonal Chart J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. Seasonal Chart Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. Seasonal Chart Hancock Whitney Corporation Seasonal Chart Sleep Number Corporation Seasonal Chart Mercantile Bank Corporation Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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