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Stock Market Outlook for October 1, 2019


S&P 500 Index has averaged a gain of 0.9% in October over the past 50 years with 58% of periods showing a positive result.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) Seasonal Chart

YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) Seasonal Chart

Korn Ferry Intl (NYSE:KFY) Seasonal Chart

Korn Ferry Intl (NYSE:KFY) Seasonal Chart

Dolby Laboratories (NYSE:DLB) Seasonal Chart

Dolby Laboratories (NYSE:DLB) Seasonal Chart

Piper Jaffray Cos. (NYSE:PJC) Seasonal Chart

Piper Jaffray Cos. (NYSE:PJC) Seasonal Chart

Nucor Corp. (NYSE:NUE) Seasonal Chart

Nucor Corp. (NYSE:NUE) Seasonal Chart

STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE:STM) Seasonal Chart

STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE:STM) Seasonal Chart

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS) Seasonal Chart

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS) Seasonal Chart

Lawson Products, Inc. (NASD:LAWS) Seasonal Chart

Lawson Products, Inc. (NASD:LAWS) Seasonal Chart

 

Upcoming BNN Appearance:

I will be on BNN’s Market Call Tonight at 6:00pm ET on Thursday, October 3rd taking your calls on Technical Analysis and Seasonal Investing.  CALL TOLL-FREE 1-855-326-6266,  EMAIL marketcall@bnnbloomberg.ca,  or TWEET @MarketCall.



The Markets

Stocks closed higher in the final session of September as investors closed the books on the third quarter.   The S&P 500 Index added half of one percent, fuelled by technology and health care stocks, two of the month’s weaker performers.  Support on the large-cap benchmark continues to hold at the 50-day moving average, however, resistance at the 20-day moving average is now a factor to navigate around.

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For the month, the large-cap benchmark was higher by 1.72%, which is much better than the 0.7% decline that is average for this last month of the third quarter.  Not only did performance diverge from what is average in the month, but volatility was rather subdued, despite the elevated headline risks that are keeping investors on edge.  It became apparent that the mean reversion that is typical for the month, the root cause of market to weakness and volatility for this period, was realized in the first half of the month, thereby mitigating downside pressures by month-end.  The market has its hopes pinned on an upside breakout following over a year and a half of sideways action, but, without a catalyst, a resolution to this pattern remains difficult to determine.

As for the seasonal tendencies for the S&P 500 Index in the month of October, while often thought of as a weak period for equities given some notable meltdowns that have occurred (eg. October 1987), the month, in fact, has averaged a gain over the past 50 years. The S&P 500 Index has returned a respectable 0.9%, on average, with 58% of Octobers showing a positive result. Returns have ranged from a loss of 21.8% in October of 1987 to a gain of 16.3% in October of 1974.  Looking for insight on how to position for the month ahead? Subscribe now and we’ll send you our 69-page monthly report.

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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.17.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

McCormick & Company, Incorporated Seasonal Chart Novagold Resources Inc. Seasonal Chart United Natural Foods, Inc. Seasonal Chart Landec Corporation Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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