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Stock Market Outlook for September 11, 2019


US Job Openings increased by 4.9% (NSA) to 7.471 million in July, however, the gain is almost half of the 9.6% increase that is average for the month.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Griffon Corp. (NYSE:GFF) Seasonal Chart

Griffon Corp. (NYSE:GFF) Seasonal Chart

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TSE:TVE.TO) Seasonal Chart

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TSE:TVE.TO) Seasonal Chart

ESSA Bancorp Inc (NASD:ESSA) Seasonal Chart

ESSA Bancorp Inc (NASD:ESSA) Seasonal Chart

FedNat Holding Co. (NASD:FNHC) Seasonal Chart

FedNat Holding Co. (NASD:FNHC) Seasonal Chart

Western New England Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:WNEB) Seasonal Chart

Western New England Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:WNEB) Seasonal Chart

Omega Flex Inc (NASD:OFLX) Seasonal Chart

Omega Flex Inc (NASD:OFLX) Seasonal Chart

US Bancorp (NYSE:USB) Seasonal Chart

US Bancorp (NYSE:USB) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as the rotation within the market continues.  The S&P 500 Index closed just above unchanged on the day as the market consolidates the gains from the previous week.  At the lows of the session, the gap that was opened last Thursday around the 50-day moving average was put to the test.  Consumer staples and REITs, two of the recent winners amidst trade uncertainty, were the significant laggards on the session as investors rebalance in this last month of the third quarter.  Energy, financials, industrials, and materials traded in the green amidst a risk-on shift.  The percent of stocks trading above 50-day moving averages has improved notably in the past month from just over a quarter of stocks trading above the intermediate threshold to now almost two-thirds above the hurdle.  The breadth indicator failed to get below 20% on the recent market pullback, a move that has previously coincided with significant market lows; strength in defensives and the weakness in cyclicals may have provided a skewed result.  The defensive positioning akin to a risk-off trend that has typically coincided with market corrections kept low beta sectors supported above their 50-day moving averages in August, while trade sensitive sectors fell well below.  This suggests that the risk aversion in the past month was the reaction to an isolated event (trade), rather than anything broader that would put the whole market at risk.  The activity over the past few sessions confirms this thesis as one trade unwinds and the other trade is put back on amidst an alleviation of trade concerns.  Bottom line, this remains a headline driven market, but the broader underlying fundamentals are still sufficient to support risk assets.

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One indicator that is hinting of strong economic fundamentals recently broke out.  The Baltic Dry Index is trading at the highest level since 2010 after breaking above the late 2013 high in just the past couple of weeks.  The gauge, which measures the cost of moving major raw materials by seas, is often indicative of demand to ship commodities, typically a precursor to an uptick in global manufacturing activity.  Seasonally, the indicator rises between August and December as goods are produced and shipped ahead of the end of year consumer and business spending season.  The data suggests that an improvement in global manufacturing data in the months ahead is increasingly probable, which, if realized, would help to alleviate the concerns as it relates to this segment of the economy.

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$BDI

On the economic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) was released during Tuesday’s session.  The headline print of July’s report indicated that openings declined by 0.4% in the month to 7.217 million. Analysts were expecting an increase of 0.9% to 7.311 million. There were 6.063 million individuals that were declared unemployed in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggesting that at least one opportunity was available for everyone seeking a job. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, openings actually increased by 4.9% to 7.471 million, which is almost half of the 9.6% increase that is average for July. The year-to-date change is now higher by a mere 7.9%, far less than the 16-year average increase through this point in the year of 28.0%.  We sent out further analysis of the results to subscribers intraday.  Subscribe now to obtain the full story.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/JTUJOL_seasonal_chart.PNG

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) Seasonal Chart General Finance Corporation (GFN) Seasonal Chart Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM) Seasonal Chart Tailored Brands, Inc. (TLRD) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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