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Stock Market Outlook for September 3, 2019


September has historically been the weakest month of the year for stocks.  The S&P 500 Index has lost 0.7%, on average, with only 44% of periods showing a positive result.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Telefonica SA (NYSE:TEF) Seasonal Chart

Telefonica SA (NYSE:TEF) Seasonal Chart

Expeditors Intl of Washington, Inc. (NASD:EXPD) Seasonal Chart

Expeditors Intl of Washington, Inc. (NASD:EXPD) Seasonal Chart

Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) Seasonal Chart

Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) Seasonal Chart

JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASD:JBLU) Seasonal Chart

JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASD:JBLU) Seasonal Chart

International Game Tech (NYSE:IGT) Seasonal Chart

International Game Tech (NYSE:IGT) Seasonal Chart

China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (NYSE:LFC) Seasonal Chart

China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (NYSE:LFC) Seasonal Chart

Eaton Vance Corp. (NYSE:EV) Seasonal Chart

Eaton Vance Corp. (NYSE:EV) Seasonal Chart

Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) Seasonal Chart

Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) Seasonal Chart

General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM) Seasonal Chart

General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed mixed on Friday as investors held the tape steady amidst final month-end positioning.  The S&P 500 Index closed in the green by a mere six basis points, remaining pinned below its 50-day moving average and short-term horizontal resistance around 2940.  The upper limit of the short-term trading range was hit, again, at the highs of the session; investors continue to search for a catalyst to give the market direction.  The strength of prices over the past couple of sessions has triggered a MACD buy signal.

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For the month of August, the large-cap benchmark was lower by 1.81%, which almost seems unbelievable given the volatility and risk aversion that has plagued the market.  The benchmark continues to hold support around the 20-month moving average, now at 2786.  A monthly MACD buy signal has appeared imminent for some time, but has yet to trigger.  The last signal generated by the long-term look was a sell signal back in October.

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Before the summer comes to an end, more volatility may be in store. September has been the weakest month for equities, on average, over the past 50 years. The S&P 500 Index has shed an average of 0.7% with only 44% of Septembers showing a positive result. Returns have ranged from a loss of 11.9% in September of 1974 to a gain of 8.8% in September of 2010.  Find out more about the tendencies that influence stocks in September in our monthly report.  Subscribe now and we’ll send it to you.

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On the economic front, Statscan released Gross Domestic Product figures before Friday’s opening bell.  The headline print indicates that GDP increased by 0.2% in June, which is better than the 0.1% increase that was forecasted by analysts. The result places the year-over-year increase at 1.6%, up from the 1.4% increase reported previously. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, GDP actually increased by 2.0% in the final month of the second quarter, which is weaker than the 2.3% increase that is average for this time of year. The year-to-date change now sits at +4.4%, which is four-tenths of one percent below the seasonal average trend.  We sent out further analysis to subscribers on Friday.  Subscribe now and we’ll send it to you.

Canada GDP - All industries Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.25.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Conn's, Inc. (CONN) Seasonal Chart eGain Corporation (EGAN) Seasonal Chart Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) Seasonal Chart HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) Seasonal Chart NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) Seasonal Chart Safe Bulkers, Inc (SB) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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