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Stock Market Outlook for August 21, 2019


While the C-wave to the ABC correction on the S&P 500 Index may not have undercut the early August lows, other broad equity benchmarks around the globe have.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE:TTM) Seasonal Chart

Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE:TTM) Seasonal Chart

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd (NYSE:RDY) Seasonal Chart

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd (NYSE:RDY) Seasonal Chart

Acceleron Pharma Inc. (NASD:XLRN) Seasonal Chart

Acceleron Pharma Inc. (NASD:XLRN) Seasonal Chart

Visteon Corp. (NASD:VC) Seasonal Chart

Visteon Corp. (NASD:VC) Seasonal Chart

Cantel Medical Corp. (NYSE:CMD) Seasonal Chart

Cantel Medical Corp. (NYSE:CMD) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks dipped on Tuesday as the correlation between equity prices and treasury yields remains high.  The S&P 500 Index fell by just less than eight-tenths of one percent, moving back into the gap that was opened during the previous day’s session between 2900 and 2920.  Resistance around the 20 and 50-day moving averages remain the hurdles on the upside.  MACD on the daily chart appears poised to trigger a buy signal as the gap versus the signal line narrows.  The indicator last issued a sell signal in the middle of July as momentum following the average summer rally period faded.

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Throughout the August correction in equity markets, we have been looking for a standard ABC correction to bring equity benchmarks down to a tradable low.  While an undercut on the early August low on the S&P 500 was not achieved, a number of other benchmarks have shown that typical three-wave move.  The NYSE Composite and Dow Jones Industrial average charted their lows for the month last week.  The same was observed on MSCI World ex US Index, which undercut the lows charted earlier in the month, hinting of the completion of the C-wave to the corrective pattern.  Admittedly, this corrective move has played out faster than expected, which does leave questions as to whether it is in fact complete.  Mildly positive seasonal tendencies for the equity market over the next month, month-end around the corner, and the abundance of negative bets placed in defensive sectors/asset classes has improved the near-term risk-reward of stocks.

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On the economic front, a report on manufacturing sales in Canada was released before Tuesday’s opening bell.  Statscan indicates that manufacturing sales fell by 1.2% in June, which is actually better than the 1.9% decline that was forecasted by analysts. The year-over-year change is now higher by a mere 0.1%. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, sales of goods manufactured actually declined by 6.4%, which is a negative divergence compared to the 0.4% increase that is average for this time of year. The above average pace that was apparent through the first five months of the year has been eliminated and the year-to-date change through June is now three-tenths of one percent below average.  Subscribe now and we’ll send your our report on what is driving the headline print and the performance compared to seasonal norms.

Sales of goods manufactured (shipments) Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) Seasonal Chart Children's Place, Inc. (The) (PLCE) Seasonal Chart Huazhu Group Limited (HTHT) Seasonal Chart Keysight Technologies Inc. (KEYS) Seasonal Chart  L Brands, Inc. (LB) Seasonal Chart Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Seasonal Chart MSG Networks Inc. (MSGN) Seasonal Chart Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation (NNA) Seasonal Chart Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) Seasonal Chart QAD Inc. (QADA) Seasonal Chart Royal Bank Of Canada (RY) Seasonal Chart Sharps Compliance Corp. (SMED) Seasonal Chart Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. (SQM) Seasonal Chart Splunk Inc. (SPLK) Seasonal Chart Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS) Seasonal Chart Target Corporation (TGT) Seasonal Chart  Zayo Group Holdings, Inc. (ZAYO) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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