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Stock Market Outlook for August 12, 2019


S&P 500 Index: Lack of improvement in MACD, on the weekly look, continues to suggest investor enthusiasm to purchase stocks around all-time highs remains limited.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Seasonal Chart

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Seasonal Chart

Champions Oncology, Inc. (NASD:CSBR) Seasonal Chart

Champions Oncology, Inc. (NASD:CSBR) Seasonal Chart

Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (NYSE:BBW) Seasonal Chart

Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (NYSE:BBW) Seasonal Chart

Stemline Therapeutics, Inc. (NASD:STML) Seasonal Chart

Stemline Therapeutics, Inc. (NASD:STML) Seasonal Chart

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASD:CDNS) Seasonal Chart

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASD:CDNS) Seasonal Chart

Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASD:CTXS) Seasonal Chart

Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASD:CTXS) Seasonal Chart

Cellcom Israel, Inc. (NYSE:CEL) Seasonal Chart

Cellcom Israel, Inc. (NYSE:CEL) Seasonal Chart

KLA-Tencor Corp. (NASD:KLAC) Seasonal Chart

KLA-Tencor Corp. (NASD:KLAC) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks dipped on Friday as investors remain skittish amidst the escalating trade war.  The S&P 500 Index shed two-thirds of one percent, trading lower from its 50-day moving average, a significant hurdle in the intermediate-term trend.  Support remains implied around 2800.  Friday’s session charted an inside candlestick where the highs and the lows remained within the range of the previous day’s session.  This is an indecisive move as investors debate the legitimacy of the rebound attempt.

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As suggested in our last report, it is suspected that the B-wave of an A-B-C correction is underway, suggesting that the C-wave, if not already started, is likely to take equity benchmarks lower, once again, before a more opportune tradable low is derived.

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For the week, the large-cap benchmark is lower by just less than half of one percent, a notable improvement from the 3% plunge that started the week.  A weekly MACD sell signal has been triggered, but it is not the crossover event itself that raises concerns.  MACD has rolled over from almost the same level that it did in May even though prices peaked much higher than they did in the spring.  This divergence does cause a bit of concern, albeit not as significant as if momentum indicators rolled over at lower levels.  Effectively it just implies waning buying momentum as investors express their hesitation in purchasing equities around all-time highs.  The negative weekly momentum divergence provided in September of last year was strong hint of the detrimental decline for stocks that followed through the fourth quarter.  Current signals are more neutral in their character, but the desire is to see improving momentum to suggest actual buying demand in this market to support stocks.  The weekly chart also highlights the important levels from an intermediate and long-term perspective, represented by the 20 and 50-week moving averages.  The benchmark bounced from levels around the 50-week moving average mid-week, highlighting the desire of the market to pick up positions around this hurdle that has provided defined support characteristics in the past.

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On the economic front, Statscan released employment data for the month of July. The headline print of the monthly Labour Force Survey indicated that employment in Canada fell by 24,200 in this summer month, a significant miss versus expectations of an increase of 6,000. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, employment actually fell by 109,100, or 0.6%, which is weaker than the unchanged result that is average for this time of year. The year-to-date change is now trending six-tenths of one percent below the seasonal average through the first seven months of the year, which is still a strong pace compared to the last five years when weaker performance amidst the slump in commodity prices became the norm.  We sent out further analysis to subscribers, including what the results are suggesting of the broader economy and the actions that may result from the Bank of Canada.  Subscribe now.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/v2064890_seasonal_chart.PNG

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.99.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) Seasonal Chart Biocept, Inc. (BIOC) Seasonal Chart Brady Corporation (BRC) Seasonal Chart Ceragon Networks Ltd. (CRNT) Seasonal Chart Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO) Seasonal Chart Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Seasonal Chart Hydrogenics Corporation (HYGS) Seasonal Chart Inspired Entertainment, Inc. (INSE) Seasonal Chart Jason Industries, Inc. (JASN) Seasonal Chart Radcom Ltd. (RDCM) Seasonal Chart Sysco Corporation (SYY) Seasonal Chart The Stars Group Inc. (TSG) Seasonal Chart   

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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