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Stock Market Outlook for August 2, 2019


Bonds and Gold flourish as volatility rises, typical for the last two months of the third quarter.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Stewart Information Services Corp. (NYSE:STC) Seasonal Chart

Stewart Information Services Corp. (NYSE:STC) Seasonal Chart

Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) Seasonal Chart

Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) Seasonal Chart

Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. (NYSE:BFAM) Seasonal Chart

Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. (NYSE:BFAM) Seasonal Chart

Everest Re Group, Ltd. (NYSE:RE) Seasonal Chart

Everest Re Group, Ltd. (NYSE:RE) Seasonal Chart

Kennametal, Inc. (NYSE:KMT) Seasonal Chart

Kennametal, Inc. (NYSE:KMT) Seasonal Chart

eHealth Inc. (NASD:EHTH) Seasonal Chart

eHealth Inc. (NASD:EHTH) Seasonal Chart

John Bean Technologies Corp. (NYSE:JBT) Seasonal Chart

John Bean Technologies Corp. (NYSE:JBT) Seasonal Chart

Columbia Banking System, Inc. (NASD:COLB) Seasonal Chart

Columbia Banking System, Inc. (NASD:COLB) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks dipped on Thursday following a tweet from Donald Trump that indicated the remaining $300 Billion in goods that the US imports from China will be taxed at a 10% rate starting next month.  Stocks quickly reacted to the headline, giving up earlier gains and falling into negative territory during the session.  The S&P 500 Index closed the day lower by nine-tenths of one percent to end at 2953.56.  Previous resistance at 2950 continues to defended as a level of support, however, as reported previously, downside risks towards the 50-day moving average at 2926 remain.

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With the shock realized during Thursday’s session, volatility plays flourished.  The volatility index jumped by almost 10%, moving above its 200-day moving average for the first time since May.  The uncertainty sent investors fleeing for safety in bonds and gold, each of which broke out of the slump from the past couple of weeks.  The iShares 7-10 year treasury bond ETF (IEF) added just less than one percent, charting a new record high, while the Gold ETF (GLD) added 2.40%, more than reversing the loss from the previous day’s session.  Each tend to show strength in August and September as volatility ramps up.

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Gold Futures (GC) Seasonal Chart

On the economic front, a report on construction spending was released during Thursday’s session.  The headline print indicated that spending on construction projects in the US declined by 1.3% in June, which is a significant divergence compared to the 0.3% increase that was forecasted by analysts. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, construction spending in the US actually increased by 2.6%, well short of the 6.8% increase that is average for this peak month in the construction season. The year-to-date change is higher by 21.3% through the first half of the year, short of the 23.2% increase that is average over this timeframe.  We sent out further information to subscribers, including a warning of what some of the June reports are suggesting of the manufacturing economy and the resulting investment implications.  Subscribe now.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/TTLCON_seasonal_chart.PNG

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.06.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Ameren Corporation (AEE) Seasonal Chart American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) Seasonal Chart Arconic Inc. (ARNC) Seasonal Chart Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) Seasonal Chart Chevron Corporation (CVX) Seasonal Chart Cinemark Holdings Inc (CNK) Seasonal Chart DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. (XRAY) Seasonal Chart Enbridge Inc (ENB) Seasonal Chart Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Seasonal Chart Fortis Inc. (FTS) Seasonal Chart Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) Seasonal Chart Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE) Seasonal Chart Honda Motor Company, Ltd. (HMC) Seasonal Chart Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) Seasonal Chart ITT Inc. (ITT) Seasonal Chart Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) Seasonal Chart LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Seasonal Chart Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) Seasonal Chart Noble Energy Inc. (NBL) Seasonal Chart Portland General Electric Company (POR) Seasonal Chart Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) Seasonal Chart Seagate Technology PLC (STX) Seasonal Chart Sealed Air Corporation (SEE) Seasonal Chart Sempra Energy (SRE) Seasonal Chart Sprint Corporation (S) Seasonal Chart Sunworks, Inc. (SUNW) Seasonal Chart TELUS Corporation (TU) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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