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Stock Market Outlook for August 1, 2019


S&P 500 Index has averaged a gain of a mere 0.1% in August with 58% of periods showing gains over the past 50 years.



 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Energy Recovery Inc. (NASD:ERII) Seasonal Chart

Energy Recovery Inc. (NASD:ERII) Seasonal Chart

Sysco Corp. (NYSE:SYY) Seasonal Chart

Sysco Corp. (NYSE:SYY) Seasonal Chart

National Grid Group (NYSE:NGG) Seasonal Chart

National Grid Group (NYSE:NGG) Seasonal Chart

Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE:RL) Seasonal Chart

Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE:RL) Seasonal Chart

ATN International, Inc. (NASD:ATNI) Seasonal Chart

ATN International, Inc. (NASD:ATNI) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks sold off on Wednesday as investors reacted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the announcement of a 25 basis point cut in the overnight rate.  The S&P 500 Index shed 1.09%, giving up the psychologically important 3000 level.  The benchmark closed below its 20-day moving average, on track to test the 50-day, a level we have been citing in recent days as the downside risk.  Previous resistance at 2950 may also be a level that investors defend given the consolidation above this previous hurdle during the past month.  Momentum indicators on the daily look continue to roll over, following through with the MACD sell signal on the large-cap index that was generated mid-month.

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Wednesday marked the last day of July and for the month the S&P 500 Index was higher by 1.31%, well ahead of the 0.5% increase that is average for the seventh month of the year. For the month ahead a gain of a  mere 0.1% is the norm with 58% of periods over the past 50 years showing positive results.  The remainder of the third quarter is notorious for increasing volatility, something I highlighted in my Market Outlook section of Wednesday evening’s episode of Market Call.  You can view the segment by navigating to the following link: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/jon-vialoux-s-market-outlook~1742714

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On the economic front, Statscan released GDP figures for the month of May.  The headline print indicated that GDP in Canada increased by 0.2% in May, which was stronger than the 0.1% increase that was forecasted by analysts. The result places the year-over-year change at +1.4%, down from the +1.5% reported previously. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, GDP in Canada actually increased by 1.6% in May, which is stronger than the 1.0% increase that is average for this time of year. The result places the year-to-date change inline with the seasonal average trend through the end of May, up by 2.4%. This is the second best pace through this timeframe in the past decade, lagging only the 3.2% increase that was realized through May of 2017.  We sent out further information to subscribers intraday on Wednesday.  Don’t miss our next report, subscribe now.

Canada GDP - All industries Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.99.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

AAON, Inc. (AAON) Seasonal Chart AmerisourceBergen Corporation (Holding Co) (ABC) Seasonal Chart Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV) Seasonal Chart ArcelorMittal (MT) Seasonal Chart Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Seasonal Chart Avon Products, Inc. (AVP) Seasonal Chart B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS) Seasonal Chart Ball Corporation (BLL) Seasonal Chart Barclays PLC (BCS) Seasonal Chart Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) Seasonal Chart BCE, Inc. (BCE) Seasonal Chart California Water Service Group Holding (CWT) Seasonal Chart Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Seasonal Chart Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Seasonal Chart CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE) Seasonal Chart Cigna Corporation (CI) Seasonal Chart Clorox Company (The) (CLX) Seasonal Chart Consolidated Edison Inc (ED) Seasonal Chart DaVita Inc. (DVA) Seasonal Chart DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD) Seasonal Chart Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO) Seasonal Chart EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) Seasonal Chart First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Seasonal Chart Fluor Corporation (FLR) Seasonal Chart HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC) Seasonal Chart Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) Seasonal Chart International Game Technology (IGT) Seasonal Chart Kellogg Company (K) Seasonal Chart Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Seasonal Chart Mednax, Inc (MD) Seasonal Chart New Gold Inc. (NGD) Seasonal Chart Noble Corporation (NE) Seasonal Chart Norbord Inc. (OSB) Seasonal Chart Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Seasonal Chart Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA) Seasonal Chart S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) Seasonal Chart Scientific Games Corp (SGMS) Seasonal Chart Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) Seasonal Chart Stericycle, Inc. (SRCL) Seasonal Chart TC PipeLines, LP (TCP) Seasonal Chart Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI) Seasonal Chart Treehouse Foods, Inc. (THS) Seasonal Chart United States Cellular Corporation (USM) Seasonal Chart United States Steel Corporation (X) Seasonal Chart Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) Seasonal Chart Western Union Company (The) (WU) Seasonal Chart Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) Seasonal Chart XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) Seasonal Chart Xylem Inc. (XYL) Seasonal Chart Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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