Contact | RSS Feed

Stock Market Outlook for July 25, 2019


Stocks pushing to the highs of the year, but so too is complacency, as gauged by the low level of the put-call ratio.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Corby Spirit and Wine Ltd. (TSE:CSW/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Corby Spirit and Wine Ltd. (TSE:CSW/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:NUS) Seasonal Chart

Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:NUS) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks gained on Wednesday as investors shook off downbeat earnings from economic bellwethers Boeing and Caterpillar.  The S&P 500 Index added just less than half of one percent, closing at a fresh all-time high.  The Nasdaq Composite charted a new all-time highs of its own.  The technology heavy benchmark had been consolidating above previous resistance in recent days around 8150 and Wednesday’s move provides lift-off from this level as investors buy into the breakout.  Momentum indicators on both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ had been rolling over in recent sessions, even charting a sell signal with respect to MACD, but renewed momentum into the core of earnings season has mitigated declines with respect to price. 

image

As we have been suggesting in recent days, a shift from defensive into cyclical sectors appears to be underway.  The consumer staples sector traded firmly lower in a positive tape.  Utilities, real estate, and health care were essentially flat on the day.  Financials, technology, and communication services topped the leaderboard.  The defensive trade has become an exhausted bet as investors express their scepticism in the equity market fundamentals, choosing to invest in the safer, lower beta counterparts of the market.  The small-cap Russell 2000 index has also remained depressed as investors maintain this risk-off mode.  Wednesday’s 1.64% jump in the small cap benchmark hints of investors moving back towards the riskier bets.  A defined trend of outperformance of the small caps relative to the large-caps has yet to be confirmed, which would provide confidence that the market is back in risk-on mode.

imageimageimage

imageimage

image

On schedule for the Wednesday session, the weekly petroleum status report was released.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is reporting that oil stockpiles fell by 10.8 million barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles fell by 226,000 barrels. The result stripped half a day of supply of oil from the market, which now sits at 25.8 days of supply. The average for this time of year is 22.0. Gasoline, meanwhile, fell by one-tenth to 24.4 days of supply, which is half of a day above the seasonal average for the middle of July.  We broke down the results for subscribers in a report released intraday.  Subscribe now and we’ll send you our analysis.

Weekly U.S. Days of Supply of Crude Oil excluding SPR  (Number of Days) Seasonal Chart

On the economic front, a report on new home sales in the US was released during Wednesday’s session.  The headline print indicated that sales increased by 7.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 646,000. Analysts were expecting a rate of 660,000. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, new home sales actually declined by 1.7% in June, which is better than the 2.6% decline that is average for the month. The year-to-date change is now trending 19.0% above average, which is the best pace since 2013.  Subscribers can login to view our full report on this important gauge of housing activity in the US.

New Home Sales Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.73.  This is the lowest level of the year and is suggestive of the return of complacency to the market.

image

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

3M Company (MMM) Seasonal Chart ABB Ltd (ABB) Seasonal Chart Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Seasonal Chart Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) Seasonal Chart Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Seasonal Chart Allegion plc (ALLE) Seasonal Chart Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Seasonal Chart Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Seasonal Chart Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Seasonal Chart American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL) Seasonal Chart American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) Seasonal Chart Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (BUD) Seasonal Chart Astrazeneca PLC (AZN) Seasonal Chart Baxter International Inc. (BAX) Seasonal Chart BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) Seasonal Chart Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The) (SAM) Seasonal Chart Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) Seasonal Chart Brunswick Corporation (BC) Seasonal Chart Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Seasonal Chart Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) Seasonal Chart Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) Seasonal Chart Crescent Point Energy Corporation (CPG) Seasonal Chart Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) Seasonal Chart Edison International (EIX) Seasonal Chart Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) Seasonal Chart Hershey Company (The) (HSY) Seasonal Chart Intel Corporation (INTC) Seasonal Chart International Paper Company (IP) Seasonal Chart Juniper Networks, Inc. (JNPR) Seasonal Chart Mattel, Inc. (MAT) Seasonal Chart MGM Resorts International (MGM) Seasonal Chart Newmont Goldcorp Corporation (NEM) Seasonal Chart Range Resources Corporation (RRC) Seasonal Chart Raytheon Company (RTN) Seasonal Chart Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Seasonal Chart Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) Seasonal Chart Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Seasonal Chart Scholastic Corporation (SCHL) Seasonal Chart Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) Seasonal Chart Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Seasonal Chart Stryker Corporation (SYK) Seasonal Chart Teck Resources Ltd (TECK) Seasonal Chart Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Seasonal Chart Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Seasonal Chart Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Seasonal Chart World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. (WWE) Seasonal Chart Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

image

image

 

 

TSE Composite

image

image

 

Sponsored By...
Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

Comments are closed.