Stock Market Outlook for July 23, 2019
Sustainability of the rising trend in US stocks could be dependent on the strength of other stocks around the globe, which melted down around this time last year.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.
The Travelers Cos., Inc. (NYSE:TRV) Seasonal Chart
Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NASD:NWBI) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks drifted higher on Monday as investors look forward to a full slate of earnings in the week ahead. The S&P 500 Index added just less than three-tenths of one percent, remaining supported around its 20-day moving average. Downside risks to levels of support remain. Of course, reaction to previous resistance at 2950 will be widely scrutinized, but levels back to the 50-day moving average around 2900 are fair game in order to deem the rising intermediate-term trend intact. Investors are hinting of their desire to pick away at cyclical assets, rotating away from defensives as value is sought in other areas of the market. Reaction to earnings will be critical.
Performance of global equity benchmarks could be key in determining if the strength in equities in the US has the ability to be sustained. It was through the summer last year that global equity benchmarks grinded lower as stocks in the US posted solid gains, reflecting the diverging economic momentum between the US and the rest of the globe. The tide may be flowing out this year given the struggle in manufacturing activity in the US so far in 2019. Looking at the MSCI World ex-US Index, the global benchmark is making a valiant attempt to hold levels above the 200-week moving average; short-term resistance around 1950 is the present hurdle in the way of higher-highs and higher-lows. The benchmark is trading within the lower third of a rising trend channel, leaving plenty of room to run in this longer-term trend of higher-highs and higher-lows. Global stocks have underperformed domestic equities for a decade and when that tide changes it is likely to entail an explosive move higher in stocks outside of the US as investors attempt to chase performance. Seasonally, the benchmark tends to find a low in the month of September, moving higher through the end of the year.
Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.99
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
| Sponsored By... |
|
