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Stock Market Outlook for May 16, 2019


Stocks close higher despite weaker than expected economic data.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Ucore Rare Metals, Inc. (TSXV:UCU.V) Seasonal Chart

Ucore Rare Metals, Inc. (TSXV:UCU.V) Seasonal Chart

Alamos Gold Inc. (TSE:AGI.TO) Seasonal Chart

Alamos Gold Inc. (TSE:AGI.TO) Seasonal Chart

Guess?, Inc. (NYSE:GES) Seasonal Chart

Guess?, Inc. (NYSE:GES) Seasonal Chart

Nathans Famous, Inc. (NASD:NATH) Seasonal Chart

Nathans Famous, Inc. (NASD:NATH) Seasonal Chart

Acadia Realty Trust (NYSE:AKR) Seasonal Chart

Acadia Realty Trust (NYSE:AKR) Seasonal Chart

Getty Realty Corp. Holding Co. (NYSE:GTY) Seasonal Chart

Getty Realty Corp. Holding Co. (NYSE:GTY) Seasonal Chart

Inseego Corp. (NASD:INSG) Seasonal Chart

Inseego Corp. (NASD:INSG) Seasonal Chart

Crawford & Co. (NYSE:CRD/A) Seasonal Chart

Crawford & Co. (NYSE:CRD/A) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed higher as investors jockey for position around the ongoing release of trade headlines.  The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just less than six-tenths of one percent, taking another swing at its 50-day moving average, which was tested around the highs of the session.  Trading activity remains tenuous as investors continue to bid defensive areas of the market higher.  Consumer staples gained by eight-tenths of one percent, topping the market return.  Major treasury bond ETFs charted new multi-year highs.  Investors are increasingly becoming risk averse given the ongoing uncertainty pertaining to tariffs and how they will impact corporations and the economy.  How the S&P 500 Index reacts to resistance around the 50-day moving average will be key for the next move for the large-cap benchmark.  Confirmation of resistance at this intermediate level would solidify the downward trajectory of the broad market, resulting in a test of longer-term levels of support around the 200-day.  Conversely, a move above the hurdle, beyond the gap that was charted at the open on Monday between 2840 and 2870, could see a move back towards all-time highs.  For the time-being, patience appears prudent.

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On the economic front, a report on retail sales in the US was released before Wednesday’s opening bell.  The headline print of April’s US Retail Trade report indicates that sales fell by 0.2%, which is weaker than the 0.2% increase that was forecasted by analysts. Less the volatile components of gas and autos, the decline was the same, down 0.2%, which is also a miss versus expectations of a 0.4% rise. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, total retail trade actually declined by 2.0%, which is slightly stronger than the 2.1% decline that is average for this time of year. The result places the year-to-date change 2.9% above the seasonal average trend, which is the second best pace through the first four months of the year in over 25 years.  Subscribe now and we’ll send you our analysis of this report, including some areas of the retail industry that are seasonally positive in the summer.

Retail Trade: Total Seasonal Chart

Weakness shows no signs of waning in April’s report on Industrial Production. The headline print indicated that activity fell by 0.5% last month, a miss versus expectations of an unchanged result. Manufacturing activity was down by a similar margin, also a miss versus expectations of a 0.1% increase. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, total industrial production actually declined by 2.1% in April, which is weaker than the 1.6% decline that is average for the month. The result places the year-to-date change 1.4% below the seasonal average trend, on track for the weakest pace since 2015 when manufacturing conditions rolled over broadly amidst a slump in commodity prices.  Subscribers received a report highlighting the areas of strength and weakness amongst the results, including an area of seasonal opportunity to take advantage of in the months ahead.  Subscribe now and we’ll send you this timely insight.

Industrial Production: Total Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.15.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

21Vianet Group, Inc. (VNET) Seasonal Chart Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS) Seasonal Chart Apollo Investment Corporation (AINV) Seasonal Chart Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Seasonal Chart Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) Seasonal Chart Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) Seasonal Chart Eagle Materials Inc (EXP) Seasonal Chart Frontline Ltd. (FRO) Seasonal Chart   Kemet Corporation (KEM) Seasonal Chart LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Seasonal Chart Magic Software Enterprises Ltd. (MGIC) Seasonal Chart MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT) Seasonal Chart Manchester United Ltd. (MANU) Seasonal Chart National Grid Transco, PLC (NGG) Seasonal Chart NICE Ltd (NICE) Seasonal Chart Noah Holdings Ltd. (NOAH) Seasonal Chart NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Seasonal Chart QIWI plc (QIWI) Seasonal Chart voxeljet AG (VJET) Seasonal Chart Walmart Inc. (WMT) Seasonal Chart Wix.com Ltd. (WIX) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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