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Stock Market Outlook for May 10, 2019


S&P 500 Index has now filled the open gap from the start of April.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) Seasonal Chart

Salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) Seasonal Chart

Douglas Dynamics Inc. (NYSE:PLOW) Seasonal Chart

Douglas Dynamics Inc. (NYSE:PLOW) Seasonal Chart

Perrigo Co. (NYSE:PRGO) Seasonal Chart

Perrigo Co. (NYSE:PRGO) Seasonal Chart

Intuit, Inc. (NASD:INTU) Seasonal Chart

Intuit, Inc. (NASD:INTU) Seasonal Chart

Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASD:PBYI) Seasonal Chart

Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASD:PBYI) Seasonal Chart

CME Group Inc. (NASD:CME) Seasonal Chart

CME Group Inc. (NASD:CME) Seasonal Chart

Amgen, Inc. (NASD:AMGN) Seasonal Chart

Amgen, Inc. (NASD:AMGN) Seasonal Chart

Navigators Group, Inc. (NASD:NAVG) Seasonal Chart

Navigators Group, Inc. (NASD:NAVG) Seasonal Chart

Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE:UAA) Seasonal Chart

Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE:UAA) Seasonal Chart

Standard Motor Prod, Inc. (NYSE:SMP) Seasonal Chart

Standard Motor Prod, Inc. (NYSE:SMP) Seasonal Chart

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (TSE:AQN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (TSE:AQN.TO) Seasonal Chart

GW Pharmaceuticals plc (NASD:GWPH) Seasonal Chart

GW Pharmaceuticals plc (NASD:GWPH) Seasonal Chart

 

Upcoming BNN Appearance:

I will be on BNN’s Market Call Tonight at 6:00pm ET this evening (Friday, May 10th) taking your calls on Technical Analysis and Seasonal Investing.  CALL TOLL-FREE 1-855-326-6266,  EMAIL marketcall@bnnbloomberg.ca,  or TWEET @MarketCall.

 

The Markets

Stocks drifted lower on Thursday as fears pertaining to a looming tariff war continue to overhang.  The S&P 500 Index shed three-tenths of one percent, weighed down by the materials and technology sectors, two areas vulnerable to an ongoing trade skirmish.  The benchmark held support around its 50-day moving average by the closing bell as stocks received lift intraday on comments from Donald Trump that enticed buyers to step in and buy the low.  This intermediate level of support is presenting a key pivot point going into trade negotiations between the US and China; any favourable resolution could see an explosive move higher from this intermediate level of support, while any failure could see the benchmark gap lower below this hurdle, as it did following Thursday’s open.  Bias amongst analysts appears that a deal will be achieved given how much is at stake, which suggests the risks to the market may outweigh the reward given that there is an element of success already priced into stocks.  Resistance on the large-cap benchmark remains obvious around 2940, while the first level of horizontal support was fulfilled with Thursday’s move to around 2840, representing the open gap from the beginning of April.  Next level of horizontal significance below is 2815 and then the 200-day moving average around 2775.  A retracement back into this zone would fit into the context of a healthy, garden variety pullback.

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A slew of economic data was released on Thursday, the charts of which we have uploaded to the chart database at https://charts.equityclock.com/.  Starting in the US, wholesale trade showed sales were up 15.1% in March, while inventories were lower by 0.1%, non-seasonally adjusted.  The result maintains a below average year-to-date pace with respect sales, while inventories are trending firmly above average for the second year in a row.  Inventory growth remains a threat to this economy as it exhausts future capacity and increases vulnerability to markdowns as wholesalers attempt to bring supply back inline with demand.  Subscribers can login and view the charts pertaining to the various categories in this report to see where the areas of strength and weakness reside: https://charts.equityclock.com/u-s-wholesale-trade-sales-and-inventories

Wholesale Sales  Seasonal Chart

Wholesale Inventories Seasonal Chart

Other reports released during the day pertained to international trade, both with respect to Canada and the US.  Through the first quarter, exports in the US are indicated to have grown 1.6% above average through the first quarter, while imports lagged their historic norm by 5.6%.  Exports are showing the best first quarter change since 2012.  As trade negotiations progress between the US and China, these are the kind of statistics that the US desires following a number of years of below average export growth and above average import growth.  Strength in foods/feeds, autos, and consumer goods exports are behind the favourable tilt.  The charts can be accessed via the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/u-s-international-trade-data

US International Trade - Exports Seasonal Chart

US International Trade - Imports Seasonal Chart

In Canada, exports showed growth that was 1.1% above average through the first quarter, while imports lagged by 0.7%.  Strength in the energy sector is skewing the aggregate result with the vast majority of categories showing a below average change through the first quarter.  Strong demand for energy products is driving this trend.  Seasonally, crude oil exports continue to rise through the summer driving season, which peaks in August.  You can access the charts via the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/canadian-international-merchandise-trade-exports-imports

Total Canadian Exports of all merchandise Seasonal Chart

Total Canadian Imports of all merchandise Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.28.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Seasonal Chart E.W. Scripps Company (The) (SSP) Seasonal Chart Enbridge Inc (ENB) Seasonal Chart Enerplus Corporation (ERF) Seasonal Chart JD.com, Inc. (JD) Seasonal Chart Linde plc (LIN) Seasonal Chart Marriott International (MAR) Seasonal Chart Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) Seasonal Chart Viacom Inc. (VIAB) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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