Stock Market Outlook for May 8, 2019
Triple top on the Dow Jones Industrial Average presenting a fairly ominous setup.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Factset Research Sys, Inc. (NYSE:FDS) Seasonal Chart
Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE:MUSA) Seasonal Chart
WageWorks, Inc. (NYSE:WAGE) Seasonal Chart
Neogen Corp. (NASD:NEOG) Seasonal Chart
American States Water Co. (NYSE:AWR) Seasonal Chart
Aerie Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASD:AERI) Seasonal Chart
Cass Commercial Corp. (NASD:CASS) Seasonal Chart
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The Markets
Stocks sold off sharply on Tuesday as trade fears gripped the market. The S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.65%, realizing the third weakest day of the year, so far. The benchmark tested its rising 50-day moving average at the lows of the session before bouncing into the close, highlighting the significance of the variable levels as support below. Momentum indicators continue to roll over, falling from overbought territory realized at the end of April. As highlighted the other day, negative momentum divergences suggest waning buying pressures around these all-time high levels. We sent out a special report to subscribers last Wednesday highlighting the near-term downside risks and the importance of risk control measures. Don’t miss out on our next report/alert…Subscribe now.
Looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and you can’t help but be concerned of the negative setup that this benchmark presents. The blue-chip index is rolling over around previous resistance just below 27,000, forming an apparent triple top. The benchmark closed below its 50-day moving average during Tuesday’s session, a level that supported the previous pullback in the month of March. The 200-day moving average and horizontal support around 25,400 is the next level to watch on the downside. Similar to the S&P 500 Index, a negative momentum divergence with respect to MACD suggests waning buying pressures, typically a precursor to a pullback of some magnitude.
On the economic front, a report on Job Openings and Labor Turnover was released during Tuesday’s session. The headline print of March’s JOLTS indicated that openings increased by 4.8% to 7.488 million. Analysts were expecting an increase of 1.0% to 7.215 million. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, job openings actually increased by 8.1% to 7.343 million in March. The average increase for openings at this time of year is 4.2%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6.211 million people were considered unemployed in March, therefore there still remains at least one job available for everyone that is looking for one. Subscribe now to login and view our analysis pertaining to this report.
Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.87.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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