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Stock Market Outlook for May 1, 2019


S&P 500 Index has averaged a gain of 0.5% in May with 60% of periods showing gains.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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HSN, Inc. (NASD:HSNI) Seasonal Chart

HSN, Inc. (NASD:HSNI) Seasonal Chart

QAD Inc. (NASD:QADA) Seasonal Chart

QAD Inc. (NASD:QADA) Seasonal Chart

Steris Corp. (NYSE:STE) Seasonal Chart

Steris Corp. (NYSE:STE) Seasonal Chart

Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (NASD:MMSI) Seasonal Chart

Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (NASD:MMSI) Seasonal Chart

Omega Healthcare Invs, Inc. (NYSE:OHI) Seasonal Chart

Omega Healthcare Invs, Inc. (NYSE:OHI) Seasonal Chart

Chesapeake Utilities Corp. (NYSE:CPK) Seasonal Chart

Chesapeake Utilities Corp. (NYSE:CPK) Seasonal Chart

Agree Realty Corp. (NYSE:ADC) Seasonal Chart

Agree Realty Corp. (NYSE:ADC) Seasonal Chart

NVE Corp. (NASD:NVEC) Seasonal Chart

NVE Corp. (NASD:NVEC) Seasonal Chart

Omnicell Inc. (NASD:OMCL) Seasonal Chart

Omnicell Inc. (NASD:OMCL) Seasonal Chart

Waste Connections, Inc. (TSE:WCN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Waste Connections, Inc. (TSE:WCN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Crocs, Inc. (NASD:CROX) Seasonal Chart

Crocs, Inc. (NASD:CROX) Seasonal Chart

Oneok, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) Seasonal Chart

Oneok, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks ended flat to close the final trading day of April.  The S&P 500 Index added a tenth of a percent, charting another fresh closing high.  The positive close was fuelled by defensive sectors of the market, including consumer staples, REITs, and utilities, which posted gains topping one percent during the session.  Communication services, meanwhile, closed firmly in the red, dragged lower by shares of Google.  The gain in the consumer staples sector pushed the S&P 500 sector benchmark above resistance of the previous high charted in November around 585.  The benchmark remains supported around its 20-day moving average and is on track to test the previous all-time high at 606.90.  Momentum indicators are pointing to an overbought condition.  Seasonally, the consumer staples sector tends to gain between the end of April and the end of November, providing a defensive way to remain exposed to equities during the volatile summer months.

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Consumer Staples Sector Seasonal Chart

STAPLES Relative to the S&P 500
STAPLES Relative to the S&P 500

STAPLES Monthly Averages

We are at the time of the year when discussion pertaining to “Sell In May and Go Away” becomes prominent.  For the month of May, specifically, tendencies remain positive for the S&P 500 Index with gains averaging 0.5% and 60% of periods over the past 50 years showing gains.  Top performing sectors in the month include consumer staples and health care, which benefit from a defensive rotation following the conclusion to the earnings reporting period.  To read more of our research pertaining to the “Sell In May” strategy and its effectiveness, as well as the playbook that you can follow for the month ahead, subscribe to Equity Clock and we’ll send your our monthly report.

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On the economic front, unfavourable winter weather conditions looks to have taken a toll on GDP in Canada for the month of February. Statscan indicates that Gross Domestic Product in Canada declined by 0.1% in the second month of the year, missing the consensus analyst estimate that called for an unchanged result. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, GDP in Canada actually increased by 3.7% in February, which is weaker than the 4.5% increase that is average for this winter month. The result places the year-to-date change 1.1% below the average trend through the first two months of the year, representing the weakest pace since 2012.  To view our full analysis, Subscribe or Login to the chart database and click on Canada Monthly GDP in the Intraday Report Archive.

Canada GDP - All industries Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.04.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) Seasonal Chart Apache Corporation (APA) Seasonal Chart Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Seasonal Chart Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) Seasonal Chart Ballard Power Systems, Inc. (BLDP) Seasonal Chart Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Seasonal Chart CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Seasonal Chart CGI Inc. (GIB) Seasonal Chart Clorox Company (The) (CLX) Seasonal Chart CME Group Inc. (CME) Seasonal Chart Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) Seasonal Chart CRH Medical Corporation (CRHM) Seasonal Chart CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Seasonal Chart Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (The) (EL) Seasonal Chart Fortis Inc. (FTS) Seasonal Chart Freightcar America, Inc. (RAIL) Seasonal Chart Gildan Activewear, Inc. (GIL) Seasonal Chart GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK) Seasonal Chart Harris Corporation (HRS) Seasonal Chart Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Seasonal Chart Humana Inc. (HUM) Seasonal Chart Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) Seasonal Chart Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) Seasonal Chart Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) Seasonal Chart MetLife, Inc. (MET) Seasonal Chart Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP) Seasonal Chart Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Seasonal Chart Owens-Illinois, Inc. (OI) Seasonal Chart Public Storage (PSA) Seasonal Chart QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Seasonal Chart Rayonier Inc. (RYN) Seasonal Chart Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Seasonal Chart Sealed Air Corporation (SEE) Seasonal Chart Southern Company (The) (SO) Seasonal Chart Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) Seasonal Chart Williams Companies, Inc. (The) (WMB) Seasonal Chart Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY) Seasonal Chart Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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