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Stock Market Outlook for April 9, 2019


Vehicle sales show above average growth in March, but the year-to-date trend remains below seasonal norms.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (NYSE:PB) Seasonal Chart

Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (NYSE:PB) Seasonal Chart

Meritor, Inc. (NYSE:MTOR) Seasonal Chart

Meritor, Inc. (NYSE:MTOR) Seasonal Chart

Petroquest Energy, Inc. (NYSE:PQ) Seasonal Chart

Petroquest Energy, Inc. (NYSE:PQ) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks eked out a gains on Monday despite overhanging negativity following some notable analyst downgrades before the opening bell.  The S&P 500 Index edged higher by a tenth of a percent, led by energy, technology, and consumer staples. The benchmark is knocking on the door of key psychological resistance at 2900, the last hurdle of note before the all-time high around 2940.  Everyone in the market is likely hinged on those all-time highs originally charted in September and, with so much focus on one level, the attraction is likely not to end until the objective is met.  Those that have maintained a negative bias since the December lows (you know who they are since they make their appearance justifying their case on CNBC during every negative session) will be very hesitant to hold bearish bets with markets at all-time highs.  But while they shed their negative bets, this may provide a good opportunity to book profits and reduce risk given the increasing vulnerability of stocks without hedges in place.  Seasonally, markets around the globe benefit from positive tendencies into the month of May.

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Vehicle sales for March are out and, while the year-to-date change remains below average, there is some impressive strength in the results for the month itself. The seasonally adjusted annual rate increased by 5.7% to a level of 18.009 million. The rate is on par with some of the strongest results reported over the past four years. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, total vehicle sales actually increased by 27.4% in this first month of meteorological spring, which is stronger than the 21.1% increase that has been the average for the third month of the year. The year-to-date trend is now 7.3% below the seasonal average trend.  Subscribers received our full report on the state of vehicle sales in the US and the opportunities that are being presented.

Total Vehicle Sales Seasonal Chart

Also released on Monday was a report on US Factory Orders for the month of February.  We have uploaded the charts to the database at https://charts.equityclock.com/u-s-factory-orders.

Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for All Manufacturing Industries Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.76.  The level is inline with the lowest levels of the year, bordering on investor complacency.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Lindsay Corporation (LNN) Seasonal Chart PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT) Seasonal Chart Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR) Seasonal Chart Simulations Plus, Inc. (SLP) Seasonal Chart WD-40 Company (WDFC) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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