Contact | RSS Feed

Stock Market Outlook for April 1, 2019


S&P 500 Index has gained 1.3%, on average, in April with 70% of periods showing positive results.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Pretium Resources, Inc. (NYSE:PVG) Seasonal Chart

Pretium Resources, Inc. (NYSE:PVG) Seasonal Chart

Air T, Inc. (NASD:AIRT) Seasonal Chart

Air T, Inc. (NASD:AIRT) Seasonal Chart

Graham Corp. (NYSE:GHM) Seasonal Chart

Graham Corp. (NYSE:GHM) Seasonal Chart

Norwood Financial Corp. (NASD:NWFL) Seasonal Chart

Norwood Financial Corp. (NASD:NWFL) Seasonal Chart

Energy Transfer LP (NYSE:ET) Seasonal Chart

Energy Transfer LP (NYSE:ET) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed higher on Friday as investors monitored news pertaining to Brexit, as well as the trade negotiations between the US and China.  The S&P 500 Index added two-thirds of one percent, bouncing from its rising 20-day moving average.  Stocks have consolidated in the past couple of weeks as investors rotated portfolios ahead of the close of the quarter.  This has resulted in a rather muted 1.79% return for the large-cap benchmark over the past month, at least compared to prior months.  The result is marginally better than the 1.2% gain that is average for the month of March, a month that tends to be dominated by gains in cyclical sectors, such as energy, industrials, and materials. One of those three was essentially market perform (energy), while the other two lagged the market benchmark as headlines dominated.  The S&P 500 Index remains within a long-term rising trend channel that spans between 2400 and 3200, presenting equal risk to reward as the benchmark hovers close to the mid-point of this long-term range.

image

Seasonally, the month of April is typically a strong period for the equity market. The S&P 500 Index has gained 1.3%, on average, in this fourth month of the year with 70% of periods showing gains.  The period is influenced by the reaction to first quarter reports, as well as contributions to individual retirement accounts (IRAs), the deadline for which is on April 15thWant more insight on how to position for the month ahead, from a seasonal perspective.  Subscribe now and we’ll send you our 61-page outlook that breaks down the sectors of the market that provide the best opportunities, as well as how to allocate your portfolio. Subscribe via the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/subscribe

image

On the economic front, in another set of revisions that will make your head spin, New Home Sales are suddenly higher for 2019, running above the seasonal average trend. But the strength comes at the expense of downwardly revised figures for 2018. The headline print of February’s report on New Home Sales indicates a 4.9% increase versus the month prior to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000. Analysts were expecting a rate of 615,000. Striping out the seasonal adjustments, sales were actually higher by 14.3%, which is better than the 13.5% increase that is average for February. The year-to-date change is now running 15.5% above average through the first two months of the year, a notable shift from our last report.  Subscribers to our service were sent a report that put the results in context of seasonal norms. Subscribe now to be included on future distributions.

New Home Sales Seasonal Chart

Monthly New Home Sales Data

North of the border, analysts may be cheering January’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Canada, but the non-seasonally adjusted results still leave much to be desired, at least on an aggregate scale. Statscan reported that GDP increased by 0.3% in the first month of 2019, beating the consensus analyst estimate that called for an increase of 0.1%. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, GDP actually declined by 3.8%, which is weaker than the 3.5% decline that is average for the month of January. The opening print to 2019 continues the weak trend that was realized through the fourth quarter, resulting in a pace for all of 2018 that was 1.1% below average.  Subscribers received a report highlighting the areas of strength emerging in the Canadian economy and the investment implication, as it pertains to the Canadian Dollar.  Want a copy?  Subscribe now and we’ll sent it to you.

Canada GDP - All industries Seasonal Chart

Monthly Canada GDP - All industries Data

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.88.

image

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Chanticleer Holdings, Inc. (BURG) Seasonal Chart Digital Ally, Inc. (DGLY) Seasonal Chart EDAP TMS S.A. (EDAP) Seasonal Chart Energy Focus, Inc. (EFOI) Seasonal Chart Flexible Solutions International Inc. (FSI) Seasonal Chart Ideal Power Inc. (IPWR) Seasonal Chart Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) Seasonal Chart Sigma Labs, Inc. (SGLB) Seasonal Chart SORL Auto Parts, Inc. (SORL) Seasonal Chart Titan Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TTNP) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

image

image

 

 

TSE Composite

image

image

 

Sponsored By...
Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

Comments are closed.