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Stock Market Outlook for March 19, 2019


Lack of new highs on the Russell 2000, DJ Industrial Average, and DJ Transportation Average could present concern if short-term upleg stalls.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Emmis Communications Corp. (NASD:EMMS) Seasonal Chart

Emmis Communications Corp. (NASD:EMMS) Seasonal Chart

Star Gas Partners L P (NYSE:SGU) Seasonal Chart

Star Gas Partners L P (NYSE:SGU) Seasonal Chart

Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSE:RET.TO) Seasonal Chart

Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (TSE:RET.TO) Seasonal Chart

Heroux, Inc. (TSE:HRX.TO) Seasonal Chart

Heroux, Inc. (TSE:HRX.TO) Seasonal Chart

Xtreme Coil Drilling (TSE:XDC) Seasonal Chart

Xtreme Coil Drilling (TSE:XDC) Seasonal Chart

WEX Inc. (NYSE:WEX) Seasonal Chart

WEX Inc. (NYSE:WEX) Seasonal Chart

Matador Resources Co. (NYSE:MTDR) Seasonal Chart

Matador Resources Co. (NYSE:MTDR) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks inched higher on Monday with key benchmarks elevating further above previous levels of resistance that were presented by the November/December highs.  The S&P 500 Index added just less than four-tenths of one percent, triggering a new momentum buy signal with respect to MACD.  The relative strength on this daily chart continues to hold above the 50 line, a characteristic of a bullish trending market.  Next major hurdle on the large-cap benchmark is the all-time high at 2940, now around 100 points away.

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The breakout on the S&P 500 Index above 2815 also coincided with a move above resistance on the NASDAQ Composite.  Gradually, barriers are being broken down, indicating a conclusion to the trend of lower-lows and lower-highs that dominated the fourth quarter.  Both the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ are around 4% away from their all-time highs charted in September.

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The breakout of these benchmarks in the month of March has been driven by technology, the largest sector weight for each.  Other sectors that have a smaller allocations to this growth area of the market have yet to break hurdles overhead.  The Small-Cap Russell 2000 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Dow Jones Transportation Average have yet to break equivalent hurdles overhead.  Keep in mind that this doesn’t mean anything, yet, but if the present short-term upleg in stocks that started last week stalls prior to a breakout in these widely followed gauges of equity market strength, it could be suggestive of weakening breadth.  Again, this is not the case yet as the failed breakout has yet to be confirmed.

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With stocks in the US closing in on all-time highs, the potential return for US benchmarks in the near-term is becoming limited.  On Monday we released a report to subscribers entitled “Better Opportunities Outside of the US,” highlighting the areas that show better risk-reward than stocks closer to home.  Subscribe now and we’ll send you this report that may provide the ultimate catch-up trade for the months ahead.

Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.81.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

AAR Corp. (AIR) Seasonal Chart Atento S.A. (ATTO) Seasonal Chart Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) Seasonal Chart Bitauto Holdings Limited (BITA) Seasonal Chart DSW Inc. (DSW) Seasonal Chart FedEx Corporation (FDX) Seasonal Chart Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) Seasonal Chart HD Supply Holdings, Inc. (HDS) Seasonal Chart    Steelcase Inc. (SCS) Seasonal Chart The Michaels Companies, Inc. (MIK) Seasonal Chart Westport Fuel Systems Inc (WPRT) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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