Stock Market Outlook for March 13, 2019
Shares of Boeing weighing on the Industrial Sector ETF, but support remains apparent around $73.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
Empire Co. Ltd. (TSE:EMP/A.TO) Seasonal Chart
AtriCure Inc. (NASD:ATRC) Seasonal Chart
Stone Energy Corp. (NYSE:SGY) Seasonal Chart
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (NYSE:AQN) Seasonal Chart
PPL Corp. (NYSE:PPL) Seasonal Chart
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASD:ULTA) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks inched higher on Tuesday as major benchmarks attempt to claw back the loss recorded in the week prior. The S&P 500 Index added three-tenths of one percent, pushing up against the underbelly of the psychological level of resistance at 2800. Gains were fairly evenly mixed amongst the sectors, except for one. Industrials continue to realize the weight of the downfall of shares of Boeing, the largest constituent within many US Industrial sector ETFs. The widely traded Industrial SPDR (XLI) was lower by eight-tenths of one percent on the session, holding between its 20 and 200-day moving averages. Prior to this unfortunate event, the industrial sector was showing an appealing setup coming into its period of seasonal strength. The ETF traded down to previous resistance, now support, around its 200-day moving average and then attempted to bounce. The fund has failed to make any progress since, resulting in a significant drift lower in the performance relative to the S&P 500 Index. Renewed buying demand from the level of support below has the potential to fuel a run through the all-time high around $80. However, questions pertaining to the relative performance of the investment suggest that there are better opportunities elsewhere. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage with CastleMoore, we opted to avoid the sector exposure presented by the industrial ETF and instead are leaning towards individual equities that have better profiles. To learn more about this portfolio, simply email us at seasonalportfolio@equityclock.com and we’ll send you further information about how to get started.
On the economic front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February was released before Tuesday’s opening bell. The headline print indicated that CPI increased by 0.2% last month, inline with the consensus analyst estimate. Less food and energy, the increase was a more muted 0.1%, placing the year-over-year change at 2.1%. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, the Consumer Price Index actually increased by 0.4% in this second month of the year, which is inline with the average change for February. The average result maintains a pace that is a tenth of a percent below the seasonal average trend, suggesting subdued inflationary pressures. To be included on our intraday distributions and receive further insight on these market moving reports and how they relate from a seasonal perspective, subscribe via the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/subscribe. Yesterday’s distribution highlighted the best industries/stocks to take advantage of the seasonal trade in the retail sector.
Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bearish at 1.01.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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