Stock Market Outlook for February 27, 2019
S&P 500 Index shows initial signs of reaction to horizontal resistance as momentum indicators appear poised to trigger sell signals.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
DISH Network Corp. (NASD:DISH) Seasonal Chart
Fifth Third Bancorp (NASD:FITB) Seasonal Chart
Laredo Petroleum Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:LPI) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks in the US closed marginally lower on Tuesday as investors show their reluctance to commit new capital at levels of resistance. The S&P 500 Index declined by just less than a tenth of a percent, showing slight signs of rejection around resistance just above 2800. Momentum has been waning in recent weeks, looking poised to trigger sell signals with respect to MACD, Stochastics, and RSI.
Due to be released this morning, our 64-page monthly outlook focuses on the technical state of the market at present, seasonal tendencies for the month(s) ahead, the probable path of currencies most relevant to Canadian and US investors, and the favourable setup for commodities. Subscribe now and we’ll send you this report.
A much delayed report on housing starts in the US essentially just confirmed the weakness that has been apparent in previous end of year reports on the housing market. The headline print of December’s housing starts report indicated that activity declined by 11.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.078 million. This is the weakest print since September of 2016 and well below the consensus estimate that forecasted a pace of 1.260 million. Permits, on the other hand, increased by 0.3% to a rate of 1.326 million, exceeding estimates that called for a pace of 1.290 million. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, housing starts in the US actually declined by 22.2% in the last month of 2018, almost matching the weakest December change on record; In December of 2007, just prior to the onset of the Great Recession, housing starts declined by 22.4%. On average, housing starts decline by 10.9% in the final month of the year. For the year overall, starts were down by 11.2%, diverging from the seasonal norm that calls for an increase of 1.9%. This is the weakest calendar year change since 2008. Subscribers received further insight on this report intraday. To learn more about what is included with a subscription to Equity Clock, click here.
Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.85
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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