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Stock Market Outlook for February 15, 2019


Last year saw the weakest calendar year performance for retail sales since 2008.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:JEF) Seasonal Chart

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:JEF) Seasonal Chart

Extra Space Storage Inc. (NYSE:EXR) Seasonal Chart

Extra Space Storage Inc. (NYSE:EXR) Seasonal Chart

NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:NRG) Seasonal Chart

NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:NRG) Seasonal Chart

AAON, Inc. (NASD:AAON) Seasonal Chart

AAON, Inc. (NASD:AAON) Seasonal Chart

Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (NYSE:MAA) Seasonal Chart

Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (NYSE:MAA) Seasonal Chart

NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE:NEE) Seasonal Chart

NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE:NEE) Seasonal Chart

Philip Morris Intl Inc. (NYSE:PM) Seasonal Chart

Philip Morris Intl Inc. (NYSE:PM) Seasonal Chart

Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSE:L.TO) Seasonal Chart

Loblaw Companies Ltd. (TSE:L.TO) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks in the US declined slightly on Thursday following a shocking retail sales report for the month of December.  The S&P 500 Index shed around a quarter of one percent, continuing to hold around its 200-day moving average.  Consumer staples and financials were the drag.

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On the economic front, a significantly delayed retail sales report for December poured cold water on the prospect of a strong consumer in the US. The headline print indicated that retail sales fell by 1.2% in December, a significant miss versus expectations of a 0.1% increase. Less autos and gas, the decline was even worse at 1.4%, another divergence compared to expectations of a 0.4% rise. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, Total Retail Trade was actually higher by 8.9% in the last month of the year, which is nowhere near the 17.0% increase that is average for the holiday month. This is the weakest December change on record with data going back 26 years. For the year overall, sales at retail locations just managed to squeak into positive territory, up 1.3%, representing the weakest calendar year performance since 2008 amidst the Great Recession. The average calendar year increase is 3.7%.  For more insight on this report that caught analysts off guard, subscribe to our service now and we’ll send you our report detailing the metrics behind the headline result.

Retail Trade: Total Seasonal Chart

Monthly Retail Trade: Total Data

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.92.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) Seasonal Chart Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Seasonal Chart Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH) Seasonal Chart Civista Bancshares, Inc. (CIVB) Seasonal Chart Computer Programs and Systems, Inc. (CPSI) Seasonal Chart Dana Incorporated (DAN) Seasonal Chart Deere & Company (DE) Seasonal Chart Enbridge Inc (ENB) Seasonal Chart Fortis Inc. (FTS) Seasonal Chart Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE) Seasonal Chart Monotype Imaging Holdings Inc. (TYPE) Seasonal Chart Moody's Corporation (MCO) Seasonal Chart Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) Seasonal Chart  Olympic Steel, Inc. (ZEUS) Seasonal Chart Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Seasonal Chart Portland General Electric Company (POR) Seasonal Chart Royal Bank Scotland plc (The) (RBS) Seasonal Chart Sensient Technologies Corporation (SXT) Seasonal Chart Wabco Holdings Inc. (WBC) Seasonal Chart Yandex N.V. (YNDX) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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