Stock Market Outlook for February 6, 2019
Global stocks joining the rally as S&P 500 Index tests resistance at the 200-day moving average.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
Torchmark Corp. (NYSE:TMK) Seasonal Chart
Ambarella, Inc. (NASD:AMBA) Seasonal Chart
FTI Consulting, Inc. (NYSE:FCN) Seasonal Chart
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The Markets
The grind higher in equity markets continues with the S&P 500 Index adding just less than half of a percent on Tuesday. After breaking above a number of barriers in the rebound from the December lows, the benchmark is now knocking on the door of its 200-day moving average, a critical pivot point in the long-term direction of the benchmark. Cyclical sectors, while approaching levels of resistance of their own, continue to outperform the market, suggesting that investors are not shying away from risk, conducive to gains in stocks. Seasonally, this risk-on environment typically persists into the month of May before a more defensive shift becomes apparent. While this certainly seems like a reasonable bet, it is inventible that there will be pitfalls along the way. As highlighted in a recent report, despite the hurdles overhead for major US equity benchmarks, definitive sell signals have not yet been revealed.
While the market has yet to provide a reason to sell, it may be providing a reason to rotate. Equity benchmarks around the globe are showing signs of jumping into this rally. The German DAX closed higher by 1.71% on Tuesday. The French CAC saw a gain of 1.66%. The emerging market benchmark ETF climbed by 1.38%, continuing to push above its 200-day moving average. Previously the downfall in global equity benchmarks provided early warning of the risk-off sentiment that threatened stocks closer to home, but now they may be hinting of better risk/reward compared to stocks closer to home. Seasonal tendencies for stocks around the globe are fairly consistent, which is that gains through the month of May are the norm. The MSCI World ex-US benchmark is around 3% below its 200-day moving average, providing some room for global stocks to run before they hit equivalent hurdles as benchmarks closer to home.
Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.83.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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